Preview
Right, so we've got Blackburn hosting Wrexham on 24 October, and if you've been following the Championship this season, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.
Let's start with the venue. Blackburn's home record over their last 20 games at home is 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses — 1.25 points per game. Wrexham's away record over 20 games on the road is 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses — 1.5 points per game. That's a gap that's hard to ignore. Wrexham are winning more, losing less, and picking up more points on the road than Blackburn are at home. And if you look at the last time these two met at Blackburn's ground, back on 1 January, Wrexham came in and won 2-0. Not a huge sample, but it's the only recent meeting at this venue, and it went the visitors' way.
Now, the xG numbers from recent games really sharpen the picture. Over four games with xG data, Blackburn have generated 0.94 expected goals per game but faced 1.95 against. Wrexham, over six games with xG data, have generated 1.24 per game and faced just 0.81 against. That's a team creating more and keeping the ball out of their net, versus a team struggling to score and leaking goals. Blackburn's actual goals in those four games were 6, outscoring their 0.94 xG per game, and the 1.95 xG against actually suggests the defence is getting a bit of help rather than struggling.
Blackburn's counter-argument is their recent form. Three wins in the last five, 10 goals scored, and they've won both of their last two home games — 2-1 against Cardiff on 10 October and 3-1 against Millwall on 12 September. They're not sitting at home doing nothing. But that last game, the 2-3 loss at West Brom on 17 October, did sting, and their overall last-10 record of 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses is a bit ragged around the edges.
Wrexham's form is mixed too — they lost 0-6 to West Ham on 11 September, which was ugly, and dropped a 1-2 to West Brom at home on 13 October. But they bounced back with a 4-1 thrashing of Preston on 17 October, and their last-10 record of 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses is tidier than Blackburn's. They've also kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 20 away games, compared to Blackburn's 5 in 20 at home.
The market has Wrexham as slight favourites at 2.7, with a bookmaker-implied probability of 37.04%. My own read, looking at the away record, the xG numbers, and that 2-0 win at this ground last January, puts Wrexham's chance closer to 43%. That's a few points above what the market is pricing in, and that's where the value sits for a fan looking for a sensible edge.
Key Points:
- Wrexham's away record (8W 6D 6L, 1.5 ppg) outperforms Blackburn's home record (6W 7D 7L, 1.25 ppg)
- Wrexham won the only recent meeting at Blackburn's ground, 2-0 on 1 January
- xG data shows Wrexham creating more (1.24 per game) and facing less (0.81 per game) than Blackburn (0.94 for, 1.95 against)
- Blackburn's last-10 record (3W 2D 5L) is weaker than Wrexham's (3W 4D 3L)
- Both teams have been involved in 4 of their last 5 games going over 2.5 goals
My pick: Wrexham win at 2.7.
