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Botafogo's home record tells a clear story: 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses across 20 home games, with 1.45 goals scored per game and 1.25 conceded. Set against that, Chapecoense-sc's away record over 20 games is 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses, scoring 0.7 per game and conceding 1.6. The gap between these two sets of numbers is the single most important fact in this fixture. Chapecoense-sc lose 60% of their away matches, and their current run — losing the last two, scoring one goal and conceding eight — makes the away record look even starker.
The head-to-head adds a layer of context. In the three meetings within the last 12 months, Botafogo won two and Chapecoense-sc won one. At Botafogo's ground, the single recent meeting ended 1–0 to the hosts. The older meetings at this venue are historical only, so I will not lean on them.
The counter-argument is Botafogo's own recent form. In their last five matches, they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice. The 1–2 defeat to Vasco at home came with a late red card, and the 0–2 loss to Mirassol away was a flat performance. They are not in the kind of rhythm that makes a 1.44 price feel like a lock. The market's 69.44% implied probability for a Botafogo win reflects the home/away gap, but it also prices in the uncertainty of Botafogo's current form.
My honest reading of the evidence puts Botafogo's win chance in the mid-to-upper 60s. The home/away records are compelling, and Chapecoense-sc's away form is genuinely poor. But Botafogo's last five games do not give me the certainty I need to back a price at 1.44. The numbers point in Botafogo's direction, but the recent results introduce enough doubt that I cannot call this a sure thing. When the evidence does not clear my bar, I pass.
Key Points:
- Botafogo's home record (8W 7D 5L, 1.45 scored per game) dwarfs Chapecoense-sc's away record (3W 5D 12L, 0.7 scored per game).
- Chapecoense-sc have lost their last two matches, scoring one goal and conceding eight.
- Botafogo's last five games: 1W 2D 2L, including a home loss to Vasco and an away loss to Mirassol.
- Recent head-to-head at Botafogo's ground: 1–0 to Botafogo.
- The 1.44 price for a Botafogo win does not clear my confidence threshold given the mixed recent form.
No Bet.
