There's a lot to chew on in this one, and I'm rooting for the little guy here โ Chapecoense-sc are the underdog at 7.6, and I'd love to find a reason to back them. But I have to be honest: the numbers don't give me a comfortable seat.
Botafogo's home record over the last 20 games at their ground tells a clear story: 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses, with 1.45 goals scored per game and 1.25 conceded. They've kept 5 clean sheets in those 20 and failed to score in only 4. In the most recent head-to-head at this venue โ the 21 April 2026 Copa Do Brasil meeting โ Botafogo edged it 1โ0. That's the only recent meeting at this ground, so it's a small sample, but it points the right way.
Now, the counter-argument, because I always give the pup a fair hearing. Chapecoense-sc did win at their own ground against Botafogo on 14 May 2026, a 2โ0 in the Copa Do Brasil. And Botafogo's last five matches are a bit scrappy: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, including a 1โ2 home defeat to Vasco on 7 October where they saw a red card in the 85th minute. They've also lost 2 of their last 3. So Botafogo aren't flying, and that gives a flicker of hope for the visitors.
But here's where the little puppy's tail stops wagging. Chapecoense-sc have lost their last two matches โ a 1โ4 home defeat to Atletico Paranaense on 12 October and a 0โ4 away loss to Vitoria on 7 October โ conceding 8 goals in those two games. Their away record over 20 games is 3 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses, with just 0.7 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded. They've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings. In their last five matches overall, they've managed 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, and conceded 12 goals. That's a team that's struggling to find a rhythm, let alone a way to score on the road.
The head-to-head over 13 meetings spanning 11 years shows Botafogo winning 8, drawing 1, and losing 4, but I'll be upfront โ most of those meetings are historical and don't tell us much about how these two teams play today. The three recent meetings within the last 12 months are what matter, and Botafogo won two of the three, including the 1โ0 at their own ground on 21 April 2026.
I checked every angle I could for the underdog. Chapecoense's away form is poor, their recent results are dire, and the venue record at Botafogo's ground favours the hosts. The draw at 5 is tempting for a small-stakes punt, but Botafogo's home record and the H2H make it hard to rate that outcome above the market's 20% view. I simply can't find a price here where the little guy offers genuine value.
Key Points:
- Botafogo's home record: 8W 7D 5L in 20 games, 1.45 goals scored per game
- Chapecoense-sc's away record: 3W 5D 12L in 20 games, 0.7 goals scored per game
- Chapecoense-sc lost their last two matches, conceding 8 goals in total
- Recent H2H at Botafogo's ground (21 April 2026): Botafogo won 1โ0
- Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, but Chapecoense's away scoring is poor
No Bet โ the available prices don't offer value for the underdog in this one, and I'd rather sit this one out than back the favourite.
