Bradford vs Stevenage Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you — when I sat down with my braai and a cold one to work through this one, the numbers just talked to me. Bradford at home against Stevenage on the road, and the gap between those two records is the kind of thing that makes a man's stomach do a little flip.

Bradford's last 20 home games read like a recipe for a good stew: 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses. They concede 0.65 per game and have kept 10 clean sheets in that stretch. That is a team that shuts the door and makes you work for it. Their recent form backs it up — three wins and two draws in the last five, 8 goals scored and just 2 conceded. The most recent game was a 0-0 draw at home against Leyton Orient on 10 October, which kept them unbeaten but showed a slight dip in output. Before that, they put 4 past Rotherham away in the EFL Trophy and beat Luton 1-0 on the road. Solid, no frills.

Stevenage, now, are on a three-game winning run — 9 scored, 2 conceded in that stretch. Four wins and one loss in their last five sounds good. But here's the thing: all four of those wins came in the EFL Trophy or at home. Their only away result in that run was the 6-1 EFL Trophy win at Walsall, and before that they lost 0-1 at Leyton Orient. Strip away the cup football and the home games, and their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. They concede 1.5 per game on the road and have failed to score in 7 of those 20. That is not a team that travels well.

Now, I'll give Stevenage their due. The head-to-head at Bradford's ground in the last 12 months went their way — a 1-0 win in April 2026. That is a real result and it means they have found a way to win here before. But the older meetings at this venue — a 3-0 win for Bradford in 2022 — are historical and don't carry the same weight. The recent meeting is the one to note, and it does suggest Stevenage can sneak a result out of this ground.

The counter-argument for Stevenage is their current momentum. 2.2 goals per game in their last five, a three-game run, and they've been scoring freely. But that output has been heavily weighted by cup football and home games. On the road, their record is 1.0 points per game, and the defensive numbers tell the real story. Bradford at home concede less than half as many goals per game as Stevenage do away. That is the edge, and it is a big one.

Key Points:

• Bradford's home record: 11W 5D 4L, 0.65 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets in 20

• Stevenage's away record: 5W 5D 10L, 1.5 conceded per game, 7 failed to score in 20

• Bradford unbeaten in last 5 (3W 2D); Stevenage on a 3-game winning run

• H2H at Bradford in last 12 months: Stevenage won 1-0 (April 2026)

• Both teams score 1.15 per game in their respective venue records

My pick: Bradford home win.