Preview
Pajimon here, braai's on and I've got a proper one for you on 24 October. Bromley host Peterborough in League One, and the form gap between these two sides is something that'll make your eyes water — in a good way, I hope.
Let's start with the elephant in the room: Bromley have lost their last five matches, and they've scored just one goal in that stretch while conceding 12. Four of those five games saw them finish without a single goal. Their xG for across four recent matches sits at 0.76 per game, which tells you the chances aren't coming. At home over 20 games, Bromley have managed 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses, scoring 1.05 per game, but that longer record is being drowned out by what's happening right now.
Peterborough, on the other hand, have won two and drawn one in their last five, scoring 10 goals along the way. They beat Leicester 3–1 on the road on 10 October and held Burton Albion to a 2–2 at home on 17 October. Their xG for across three recent games is 1.59 per game, and they've failed to score in only one of their last five. That's a team that's finding the back of the net.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Peterborough's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses. That's a real concern for the visitors. Bromley's home record of 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in 20 games is actually the better record at this venue. And the head-to-head? One meeting, back in November 2018, when Peterborough won 3–1 in the FA Cup. That's seven years ago, so it's historical record and tells us nothing about what's happening now.
But here's what I keep coming back to: the scoring. Bromley have failed to score in four of their last five games. Their xG for is 0.76 per game. Peterborough have scored in four of their last five, with an xG for of 1.59 per game. The question for both teams to score isn't really about Peterborough — they're scoring. It's about whether Bromley can find one. And the evidence says they probably won't. The market prices both teams to score at 1.44, implying about 69% chance, but I think the odds are stacked the other way when one side has gone four games without a goal.
Key Points:
- Bromley have lost their last five, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 12; they failed to score in 4 of those 5
- Peterborough have won 2 and drawn 1 in their last 5, scoring 10 goals; they failed to score in only 1 of 5
- Peterborough's away record over 20 games is 6W 3D 11L, a genuine concern for the visitors
- The head-to-head is a single meeting from 2018 — historical only, no current relevance
- Bromley's xG for across 4 recent games is 0.76 per game; Peterborough's is 1.59 per game
My verdict: both teams not to score.
