Preview
Right, let's get into this one. Bromley are at home, and I'll be straight with you — the last five games have been a nightmare. Five losses, one goal scored, twelve conceded. The 0-4 to Leicester on 20 October was the latest in a run that stretches back to 22 September, and in between they managed a single goal against Mansfield Town. Four of those five games saw them go completely blank. That's not a bad stretch of form, that's a team that's lost the plot.
Peterborough, on the other hand, are in a completely different world. Two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five, with ten goals on the board. They beat Leicester 3-1 on 10 October and drew 2-2 with Burton Albion at home on 17 October. Yes, they lost to Huddersfield 4-1 on 20 October, but that's one bad day in an otherwise solid stretch. They're scoring two a game and conceding 1.8, which is a world away from what Bromley are putting up.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a one-note tipster. Peterborough's away record over the last 20 games is 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses. That's not great. Bromley at home, over 20 games, have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses. So on a pure record basis, the home side have a slight edge. The head-to-head is one meeting from 2018 — Peterborough won 3-1 away in the FA Cup — and that's so old it's basically a footnote. There's no recent history to lean on here.
But here's the thing: form is everything, and the gap between these two teams right now is enormous. Bromley are scoring 0.2 goals a game and conceding 2.4. Peterborough are scoring 2 a game and conceding 1.8. That's not a close contest on the numbers. Bromley failed to score in four of their last five matches, and their xG for over four recent games sits at 0.76 per game. They're not creating chances, let alone converting them.
Key Points:
- Bromley have lost all five of their recent games, scoring just one goal and conceding twelve
- Peterborough have won two and drawn one in their last five, scoring ten goals
- Peterborough's away record over 20 games is 6W 3D 11L, while Bromley at home are 7W 8D 5L
- The only head-to-head meeting was in 2018 — Peterborough won 3-1 away
- Bromley failed to score in four of their last five matches
The market has Peterborough at 2.15 to win, which prices them at about 46.5%. My read is that the form gap is too big to ignore, and I'd put Peterborough's chances at just under half. That's a small edge over the market's view, and it's enough for me to back the away side.
My tip: Peterborough away win.
