Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Burnley welcome Newcastle to Turf Moor on Tuesday night, and if the history books are anything to go by, it's not a happy hunting ground for the Clarets. They're stuck in 19th with just 12 points, while Newcastle are sitting pretty in 13th with 23. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but football's not played on paper, is it?

Burnley's form is, to put it politely, a bit grim. They've only won one of their last ten, and that was against the league's bottom side, Wolves. They've managed to stop the rot with two draws on the bounce – a 0-0 at home to Everton and a 1-1 at Bournemouth – but let's not get carried away. At home, it's been a proper struggle. They've lost four of their last five at Turf Moor, scoring just twice in that run. They're averaging a measly 0.4 goals per game on their own patch. That's not gonna fill the fans with hope.

Newcastle, on the other hand, are a bit of a mixed bag. They pulled off a cracking 2-1 win over Manchester City last month, but they've also come a cropper away at Sunderland and Manchester United recently. Their away record shows they only win 20% of the time on the road, but they do score goals – 1.4 per game away from home. They've also not kept a clean sheet in their last ten outings, which is a bit of a worry for them.

Now, here's the stat that really tells the story. In nine previous meetings, Burnley have never beaten Newcastle. Not once. It's seven wins for the Magpies and two draws. The last time they met, just a few weeks ago on December 6th, Newcastle ran out 2-1 winners. It's a proper bogey team situation.

When you dig into the numbers, Newcastle are creating more chances (13.8 shots per game to Burnley's 9.9) and hitting the target more often (5.7 on target vs 3.4). They also enjoy more of the ball and pass it more accurately. Burnley's shot accuracy at home is a worrying 22% – that means nearly four out of every five attempts are going wide or getting blocked.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Newcastle as strong favourites at 1.65, and you can see why. But I'm not convinced there's enough value there given their patchy away form. The Over 2.5 goals market at 1.80 is tempting, but Burnley's home games average just 2.0 total goals. For me, the smart play is looking at Both Teams to Score. Newcastle concede nearly every game, but Burnley's attack at home is so blunt. They've only scored in one of their last five home matches. I fancy Newcastle to get a goal, but I'm not sure Burnley will reply.

Key Points:

Burnley are winless in nine historic meetings against Newcastle (0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses).

The Clarets have lost four of their last five home league games, scoring just twice.

Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions.

Burnley average only 0.4 goals per game at home this season.

• Newcastle's last five away games have seen Both Teams Score in three of them.

In summary, this has all the hallmarks of a Newcastle win, but the value for me lies in opposing goals. Burnley's toothless attack at home, up against a Newcastle side that's due a clean sheet, points towards one team failing to find the net. I'm backing 'No' in the Both Teams to Score market.