Let's get straight to the numbers, because that's where the value lives — or where it doesn't.
Buxton's case at home is built on a solid foundation. Over 20 home games, they've recorded 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.35. In the head-to-head, Buxton have won both recent meetings against Worksop Town: 3–1 at this ground in December 2025 and 2–1 on the road in April 2026. Worksop Town's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, with 1.3 goals scored per game and 1.65 conceded. On the home-versus-away split, Buxton's 1.7 points per game at home sits comfortably ahead of Worksop Town's 1.3 away. That's the structural edge, and it's real.
Now the problem. Buxton's last three games have been a disaster. They lost 0–1 at King's Lynn Town on 10 October, 0–2 at home to South Shields in the FA Cup on 3 October, and 0–4 at South Shields on 26 September. In those three matches, Buxton scored zero goals and conceded seven. Across their last five games, they've won just two and scored only four. That is a sharp drop from the 1.8 goals per game their home aggregate suggests, and it raises a genuine question about whether the home record is still translating into results right now.
Worksop Town are in a different rhythm. All five of their last games went over 2.5 goals — 2–1 at home to Morecambe, 0–3 at home to United of Manchester, 1–4 at Chester, 5–2 at home to AFC Telford United, and 2–2 at AFC Telford United. They've scored 10 and conceded 12 in that span. Their last game was a 2–1 home win on 10 October, so they arrive with a win under their belt. But their away record is mixed: 7 wins in 20, and they lost 1–4 at Chester on 26 September. They've failed to score in only 2 of their last 10 games, so they're not a team that shuts up.
The matchup tables confirm the home/away split favours Buxton, but Buxton's last five games (1.2 points per game, 0.8 scored, 1.6 conceded) are a far cry from their 20-game home aggregate. Worksop Town's last five (1.4 points per game, 2.0 scored, 2.4 conceded) are more in line with their away record. The head-to-head is recent and clear, but Buxton's current run of three losses without a goal is hard to ignore when you're trying to price a win.
Key Points:
- Buxton's home record over 20 games: 11W 1D 8L, 1.8 goals scored per game, 1.35 conceded
- Buxton won both recent head-to-head meetings (3–1 at home, 2–1 away)
- Buxton's last 3 games: 0 wins, 0 goals scored, 7 conceded
- Worksop Town's last 5 games all went over 2.5 goals; 10 scored, 12 conceded
- Worksop Town's away record: 7W 5D 8L, 1.65 conceded per game
The structural edge points to Buxton, but the current form doesn't let me price that win with the confidence the price demands. No other market offers a clear edge over the bookmaker's implied probability either. When the numbers don't line up cleanly, the disciplined play is to sit out. No Bet.
