Falkirk vs Dundee Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Premiership clash. Falkirk welcome Dundee to their gaff on Wednesday night, and it's a proper mid-table vs relegation scrapber. Falkirk are sitting pretty in 6th with 36 points, while Dundee are down in 10th, just three points off the bottom. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

First off, form. Falkirk have won five of their last ten, including some tasty results like that 4-1 demolition of Hibernian at home and a solid 1-0 win over Aberdeen. They've only lost three in that run, and two of those were against Celtic – no shame there. At home, they're scoring an average of 1.67 goals and conceding just 0.67. They're a tough nut to crack on their own patch.

Dundee, on the other hand, have become the draw specialists lately. They've shared the points with Celtic and Motherwell in their last few, which shows they can dig in against the big boys. But here's the rub: they're not scoring many. Just seven goals in their last ten games, and only 0.67 per game on their travels. They're organised, but blunt up top.

Now, the head-to-head makes for interesting reading. It's dead even overall – four wins each and a draw. But at Falkirk's place, it's a different story. The home side have won three of the four meetings there. Dundee did win the reverse fixture 1-0 back in December, so Falkirk will be well up for a bit of revenge.

When you crunch the numbers, a couple of things jump out. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their last ten games. That's not a fluke. Falkirk's defence at home is solid, and Dundee's away attack is, well, a bit naff. The stats also show Falkirk create more chances – they average over 15 shots a game to Dundee's nine on the road.

And don't forget the fatigue factor. Dundee have had just four days' rest after their cup heroics against Celtic, while Falkirk have had a full week to prepare. That could be massive in the latter stages.

Key Points:

Falkirk are 13 points better off in the league and have stronger home form.

Dundee are struggling for goals away, scoring just 0.67 per game on average.

Both teams have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 10 matches.

The last meeting was a 1-0 Dundee win, but Falkirk have a strong historical record at home in this fixture.

• Dundee have played three games in the last 14 days to Falkirk's two, and have less rest.

The Simple Verdict:

This has the feel of a cagey affair. Falkirk will be favourites, but Dundee don't concede many easily. I can see the home side nicking it, but I don't think it'll be a goal fest. With both sides boasting decent defences and Dundee's attack looking toothless on the road, I'm leaning towards one, maybe two goals max, and likely just one team finding the net. The value for me isn't in the short home win price, it's in backing at least one side to draw a blank.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - NO