Necaxa vs Atlas Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. Necaxa welcome Atlas to their gaff, and on paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer if you ask me. Both sides have three points from the early season, but the story of their form tells a very different tale.

Necaxa are the entertainers, no doubt about it. In their last ten, they've not kept a single clean sheet. Not one! But they've scored 21 goals in that time, averaging over two a game. They battered Santos Laguna 3-1 away and 4-1 at home, and won a seven-goal thriller 4-3 at Atletico San Luis. The problem is, they also shipped five against Tigres and five against Atlas in a friendly last month. At home, they're a bit more solid, conceding just 1.25 per game, but they only win 25% of the time on their own patch. Their last outing was a 2-0 home defeat to a strong Monterrey side, which ain't the end of the world.

Now, let's talk about Atlas on the road. It's grim reading, mate. In their last four away games, they've lost the lot. Four defeats, zero points. They've scored a grand total of one goal in those four matches – in a 4-1 hammering by Guadalajara Chivas. They're averaging a pitiful 0.25 goals per game away from home and conceding 2.50. Their only league win this season was a 1-0 at home to Puebla. They are, quite simply, a different – and much worse – team when they travel.

The head-to-head is spicy, with Atlas just edging it 4 wins to 3. The last meeting was that 5-3 friendly win for Atlas, but we all know friendlies can be misleading. Historically, when Necaxa are at home, it's been a coin flip.

So, what's the play here? Necaxa score goals for fun. Atlas can't score away. Necaxa are leaky, but Atlas might not have the key to unlock the door. The stats scream one thing: Necaxa should win this. They're the better side, at home, against a team with a travel sickness that'd make a sailor blush.

The bookies have Necaxa at 1.62 to win. I reckon their chance is closer to 65%, which makes that price look like decent value. The 'Over 2.5' at 1.53 is tempting given Necaxa's games, but Atlas's toothless attack puts me off. 'Both Teams to Score' at 1.62 is also risky for the same reason – Atlas might not turn up.

Key Points:

Necaxa have scored 21 goals in their last 10 games but kept 0 clean sheets.

Atlas have lost their last 4 away matches, scoring just once.

Atlas average only 0.25 goals per game on their travels.

Head-to-head is close, but Necaxa's home record vs Atlas is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.

• The value, based on the stark contrast in away form, lies with the home side.

Summary:

All the data points to a Necaxa victory. They're the side with the firepower and home advantage, facing an Atlas team that folds like a cheap deckchair on the road. The price is fair, and the edge is positive. My money's on the home win.