Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceMay the form be with you, friends. A curious one this fixture is, with two teams who have not met in over a year, yet the numbers tell a tale as clear as the Force itself.
Cardiff, at home, are a force to be reckoned with. Over their last 20 home games, they have won 11, drawn 5 and lost just 4, scoring 1.9 goals per game while conceding 1.25. That is a record that speaks of a team comfortable on its own patch, a team that knows the rhythm of its own ground. Watford, on the other hand, travel with a record that would make even the most patient Jedi uneasy: 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 away games, scoring 0.85 per game and conceding 1.8. The gap between these two sets of numbers is not subtle. It is, as I might say, a difference you can see from a great distance.
And the recent form, oh, the recent form. Watford have lost their last three matches, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 7 in that stretch. Three days before this kickoff, they were dismantled 0–4 at home by Burnley. That is not a stumble; that is a fall from which one must gather oneself. Cardiff, too, are not in perfect shape — they lost 1–2 at Blackburn on 10 October and have won just once in their last five. But they did beat Charlton 3–1 at home on 19 September, and that win reminds us of what this team can do when the conditions are right.
The head-to-head, I must confess, is a ghost from another era. No meetings within the last 12 months. What we have is historical: at Cardiff's ground, two draws (1–1, 1–1); at Watford's ground, three Cardiff wins (1–2, 0–1, 1–3). So the old record suggests Cardiff have not lost at home to Watford, but I will not call it decisive when the games are two to three years old. The present must speak for itself.
Now, the counter-argument, for I must be fair as a wise one should be. Cardiff's last five games have been poor — one win, one draw, three losses. They failed to score in two of those five. Their xG against has been 1.72 per game over the last five matches with data, which is not a comfortable number for a defence. Watford, despite their poor run, did win 2–1 at home against Preston on 8 September, and their xG against is 1.45 per game, which is not as bad as the 0–4 scoreline might suggest. A team that concedes 1.8 per game away is vulnerable, yes, but a team that has just lost 1–2 at Blackburn is not without hope.
Key Points:
- Cardiff's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 1.9 goals scored per game
- Watford's away record: 3W 6D 11L in 20 games, 0.85 goals scored per game
- Watford lost their last 3 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 7
- Cardiff won 3–1 at home against Charlton on 19 September
- Head-to-head is historical only; no meetings within 12 months
The numbers, as I have always said, do not lie. They whisper, they murmur, but they do not lie. Cardiff's home record is strong, Watford's away record is weak, and Watford's current form is a storm that has not yet passed. Watford scored just 0.6 per game in their last five and failed to score in three of them. Cardiff, too, have been quiet off the mark. The total goals, I believe, will lean towards the quieter side of the ledger. Under 2.5 goals it is, my friends. The Force is with the under.