Empoli vs Sudtirol Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash. Empoli, sitting pretty in 8th, welcome Sudtirol who are down in 14th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a home banker, but football's never that simple, is it? Let's crack open the numbers and see where the value lies.

Empoli have been ticking along nicely. They've taken 17 points from their last 10 games, winning five of them. More importantly, they've been solid at home, scoring nearly two goals a game on their own patch. Their recent results tell a story of a team that can mix it with the best – they held the league leaders Frosinone to a 1-1 draw and nicked a 1-0 win away at a decent Cesena side. They've also shown they can put the lesser lights to the sword, hammering Bari 5-0. The defence has been tidy too, keeping five clean sheets in that ten-game run.

Now, Sudtirol are a funny old side. They don't win many – just one in their last ten – but blimey, they love a draw. Six of those last ten have ended all square. They're the ultimate party poopers away from home, especially against the better teams. They've grabbed draws at Monza (who are 3rd) and Modena (7th), which shows they're a tough nut to crack. The problem is, they can't buy a goal on the road, averaging just 0.5 per game. They're organised, they're stubborn, but they lack a cutting edge.

The head-to-head is a short one, but it favours Empoli. They went up to Sudtirol back in October and came away with a 2-1 win. That'll give the lads a bit of a psychological boost.

When you look at the stats, Empoli keep the ball better with a 78% pass accuracy compared to Sudtirol's 67%. Sudtirol also tend to get a bit frisky away from home, committing over 19 fouls per game on their travels. That could lead to chances for the home side.

The bookies have Empoli at 2.25 to win. That implies they've got about a 44% chance. I reckon their chances are better than that, maybe more like 50-55%. They're at home, in better form, and facing a side that struggles to win. Sudtirol's draw threat is real, but Empoli have the quality to break them down.

Key Points:

Empoli are strong at home, scoring 1.8 goals per game on average.

Sudtirol are draw specialists away (no wins in last 6, but 4 draws).

Empoli won the only previous meeting this season 2-1.

Sudtirol have the worst attack away from home in the league (0.5 goals/game).

• Empoli have kept a clean sheet in half of their last 10 matches.

All in all, I fancy Empoli to get the job done here. Sudtirol will make it difficult, they'll be organised and look for another point, but the home side should have just too much for them. The value sits with the home win at those odds.