Cardiff vs Stockport County Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's first versus fourth, Cardiff hosting Stockport County, and it's got all the makings of a cracking League One clash. The Bluebirds are sitting pretty at the summit, ten points clear at the top, and they've been the business at home lately – winning four of their last five in front of their own fans. But Stockport are no pushovers; they're fourth for a reason and they've been grinding out results, especially on their travels where they're conceding barely half a goal a game.

Cardiff's recent results tell a story of a team that knows how to win, but also one that lets the other lot have a go. They've seen both teams score in seven of their last ten outings. They beat Bradford 2-1 away, put four past Doncaster, but also shipped three to Chelsea (no shame there) and drew 1-1 with Leyton Orient. They score for fun at home – nearly two a game – but they also let in over one a match. It's entertaining, but it's not exactly rock solid at the back.

As for Stockport, they're a funny old side. At home they're all guns blazing, scoring two a game. Away, they tighten up, scoring just one but conceding only 0.5 on average. Their last ten shows they can mix it with the best, beating Huddersfield 1-0 and Mansfield 2-1 away, but also losing to the likes of Reading and Stevenage. The key stat? Both teams have scored in six of Stockport's last ten games too.

Now, the maths. The bookies have Cardiff as favourites at 1.83, which feels about right for the league leaders at home. But here's the thing that catches my eye: Both Teams to Score is priced at just 1.62. Given Cardiff's 'you score, we'll score more' approach at home (1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded on average) and Stockport's decent away attack (they've scored in three of their last four on the road), I fancy the net to ripple at both ends. The only time these two met this season finished 1-1, which fits the pattern perfectly.

Stockport will come to be organised and tough to break down, but Cardiff's quality and home advantage should see them create chances. The question is whether Cardiff's defence can keep a clean sheet against a side sitting in the playoffs. History says probably not.

Key Points:

Cardiff are top, with a formidable 80% home win rate in their last five.

Stockport are fourth and boast a mean away defence, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on the road.

Both teams have scored in 70% of Cardiff's last 10 games and 60% of Stockport's.

The previous meeting this season ended 1-1.

• Cardiff score freely at home (1.8 per game) but also concede regularly (1.4 per game).

The Verdict: This is a proper top-of-the-table tussle. Cardiff should have enough to avoid defeat, but Stockport are no mugs and will fancy their chances of nicking a goal. With the value sitting firmly in the 'Both Teams to Score' market, that's where my money's going. Let's hope for an entertaining 2-1 or 1-1.