Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction

The numbers don't lie, and in this one they're pointing firmly at the visitors. Celta Vigo have managed just one win in their last ten games across all competitions — a 5–0 hammering of Racing Santander at home on 19 September — while Alaves have collected four wins, three draws and three losses over the same stretch, racking up 1.5 points per game against Celta's 0.8.

That gap is the story. Alaves are scoring 1.6 goals per game over their last ten, while Celta are managing 0.9. The xG data sharpens the picture further: Alaves have generated 1.38 expected goals per game across five matches with data, compared to Celta's 0.73 across seven. Meanwhile, Celta's defensive xG against sits at 1.34 per game — they're being created chances at a rate that's hard to defend against, and they lost 1–2 to Juventus at their own ground on 15 October, just three days before this kickoff.

The head-to-head at this venue adds a note of caution for the hosts. In March 2026, Celta Vigo fell 3–4 to Alaves at their own ground, a game where both sides scored freely. The reverse fixture at Alaves' ground saw Celta win 1–0 in November 2025, so the recent meetings are split, but the one at this ground went to the visitors.

The counter-argument is that Celta's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, with 1.6 goals scored per game, while Alaves' away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. Celta hold the edge in raw home numbers, and Alaves did pick up a red card in their 1–2 loss to Atletico Madrid on 10 October, which complicates their recent defensive picture. But those 20-game home figures are diluted by a stretch that includes the 5–0 win over Racing and the 1–1 draw with Malaga, while the last ten games tell a very different story.

Key Points:

• Alaves: 4W 3D 3L in last 10 (1.5 PPG) vs Celta: 1W 5D 4L (0.8 PPG)

• Alaves xG for: 1.38 per game; Celta xG for: 0.73 per game; Celta xG against: 1.34 per game

• H2H at Celta's ground (22 March 2026): 3–4, Alaves won

• Celta lost 1–2 to Juventus at home on 15 October, three days before kickoff

• Alaves away record: 5W 6D 9L in 20 games; Celta home: 8W 3D 9L in 20 games

The market prices Celta as favourites at 2.18, but the form, the xG and the recent head-to-head all lean the other way. Alaves at 3.78 offer genuine value when you stack up the evidence. My pick: Alaves away win.