Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction

Look, I'm a man who enjoys a good braai and a cold beer, and I enjoy football the same way – I want to see goals, I want to see a team that's actually winning, and I want my tip to pay out. So let's get into Celta Vigo versus Alaves on 18 October in La Liga.

The strongest case here is Celta's home record. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 8, drawn 3 and lost 9, scoring 1.6 per game and conceding 1.45. That's a record that says this ground produces results. Alaves on the road are a different story: 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 away games, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding 1.55. The venue numbers clearly favour the hosts.

Now the counter, and I'll be straight with you: Celta's last 10 games are 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses. They lost 1–2 to Juventus at home on 15 October, three days before this kickoff, and before that they were held to 0–0 at Elche. Their last 5 is 1W 2D 2L. Alaves, meanwhile, have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 10, and they beat Osasuna 5–2 at home on 6 September. Their last 5 is 1W 1D 3L, so they're not in great shape either, but the longer picture leans their way.

The head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months is a red flag for Celta. On 22 March 2026, Alaves came here and won 4–3. That's the only recent meeting at Balaídos, and it went the visitors' way. The reverse fixture at Alaves' ground on 22 November 2025 was a 0–1 Celta win, so both recent meetings went to the away team.

Where does that leave us on goals? Celta's home record shows 13 of 20 games going over 2.5 goals, and they score 1.6 per game at home. Alaves concede 1.55 per game on the road. The combined scoring picture points to a match with three or more goals. Celta's last 10 has been 7 under 2.5, which pulls the other way, but the home record over 20 games is the bigger sample and it leans over. Alaves' away record is 10 of 20 over, which is right on the line.

The honest counter-argument: Celta are in poor recent form, lost their last game, and the only recent meeting at this ground went to Alaves. If Celta's attack stays as cold as it has been in the last 10 games (0.9 per game), the over 2.5 line gets tough.

Key Points:

• Celta's last 20 home games: 8W 3D 9L, 1.6 scored per game, 13/20 over 2.5

• Alaves' last 20 away games: 5W 6D 9L, 1.2 scored per game, 10/20 over 2.5

• Celta's last 10: 1W 5D 4L; Alaves' last 10: 4W 3D 3L

• H2H at this ground (22 March 2026): Celta 3–4 Alaves

• Celta score 1.6 per game at home; Alaves concede 1.55 per game away

My pick: over 2.5 goals at 2.3. The home record and the combined scoring picture give me enough to back it, even with Celta's recent form giving me pause.