Chorley vs Buxton Prediction

Right, so we've got Chorley hosting Buxton on 24 October at 14:00 in the National League North, and I'm telling you, this one's got a nice flavour to it — like a good braai on a cold afternoon.

Let's start with what's in front of us. Chorley have won three of their last five, scoring nine and conceding just five. They beat AFC Telford United 2-1 at home on 10 October and Spalding United 2-1 on 26 September. The only blemish is the 0-1 FA Cup loss at Worcester City on 20 October, but that's a cup tie and it's behind them now. Their home record over 20 games tells the story: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, averaging 1.45 points per game and scoring 1.45 per match while conceding 1.3. That's a solid home base.

Now Buxton. Look at their last five: one win, one draw, three losses. They've scored three goals and conceded nine. They lost 0-2 to South Shields at home on 3 October and 0-4 away to the same side on 26 September. That's not a team in good shape, my friend. Even their away record over 20 games — 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses — looks decent, but the last five say a different story entirely.

The head-to-head is interesting. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Chorley's ground on 14 March, and Buxton won 2-1. The older meetings are historical — Buxton won all three of the older meetings at their own ground, and Chorley won 3-0 at home back in February 2025. So the recent picture at this venue is thin, and I'd lean on current form.

Here's the counter-argument I need to be fair about: Buxton's away record over 20 games is actually better than Chorley's home record in terms of wins (10 to 8) and points per game (1.65 to 1.45). And they did win the recent H2H meeting at this ground. So you can't just dismiss them.

But the numbers from the last five and last ten tell me Chorley are the stronger side right now. In their last 10, Chorley have scored 17 and conceded 15, while Buxton have scored 16 and conceded 17. And in the last five, Chorley have scored 9 to Buxton's 3. That's a big gap in output.

Key Points:

• Chorley have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5

• Buxton have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 9

• Chorley's home record: 8W 5D 7L in 20 games, 1.45 points per game

• Buxton's away record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, 1.65 points per game

• Recent H2H at Chorley's ground: Buxton won 2-1 on 14 March 2026

So here's where I land. I'm going with the Chorley home win at 3.0. The market prices Buxton at 2.22, implying a 45.05% chance, but the form, the home record, and the goal output say the hosts should get this done. I rate Chorley's chance at around 48%, which sits comfortably above the market's 33.33% view. That's value, and I'm taking it. Eish, sometimes you just gotta trust the numbers, boet.