Chorley vs Buxton Prediction

The market has Buxton as the favourite here at 2.22, but the numbers on the ground tell a very different story. Chorley have won three of their last five matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding just one. Their home league results in the last month — 2–1 over AFC Telford United and 2–1 over Spalding United — show a side that is comfortable, scoring and controlling at their own ground. Buxton, by contrast, have lost three of their last five, managed just 3 goals in that span and failed to score in three of those five. Their 0.6 goals per game and 1.8 conceded per game over the last five games is the form of a team that is struggling to find any rhythm, let alone an away edge.

The home-and-away records reinforce the point. Over 20 home games, Chorley average 1.45 points per game and 1.45 goals scored, conceding 1.3. Buxton's away record over 20 games looks respectable — 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses, 1.65 points per game — but that record is built over a long stretch and does not reflect what Buxton are doing right now. In their last five matches, the away results have been a 0–1 loss at King's Lynn Town and a 0–4 defeat at South Shields. That is not the same team the 20-game aggregate describes.

The head-to-head adds a wrinkle. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Chorley's ground in March, and Buxton won 2–1. The older meetings — Buxton winning 3–2, 1–0 and 3–1 at their own ground, and Chorley's 3–0 at home — are historical and do not carry the weight of current form. Still, that recent away win at this venue is worth acknowledging; it shows Buxton are capable of coming here and picking up points.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Buxton's 20-game away record is solid, and they did beat Chorley here seven months ago. The 20-game matchup table shows Buxton away with a higher points-per-game figure (1.65 to 1.45) and a slightly better goals-per-game rate (1.55 to 1.45). If you are looking at the long aggregate, Buxton's away numbers are arguably the stronger set. But aggregates that stretch back to January are diluted by form that no longer exists. The last five games tell the real story, and in that window the gap between the two sides is stark.

Key Points:

• Chorley have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 per game; Buxton have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 0.6 per game and failing to score in 3 of 5.

• Buxton's recent away results include 0–1 and 0–4 defeats, a far cry from their 10W 3D 7L away record over 20 games.

• The only recent head-to-head at this venue (March 2026) went to Buxton 2–1, but the older meetings are historical and do not reflect current form.

• Chorley's home record over 20 games: 8W 5D 7L, 1.45 scored per game, 1.3 conceded per game.

• Buxton have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, a pattern that makes an away win at a scoring Chorley side unlikely.

The odds at 3.0 for a Chorley win imply a 33.33% chance, but the form, the home record and the scoring gap all point to a higher probability than the market is pricing. I rate Chorley's chance of winning this at around 45%, which sits comfortably above the 33.33% the bookmaker is offering. That is the kind of gap you want to find. My pick is the home win.