Cremonese vs Benevento Prediction

The force is strong with Benevento, and it shows in the numbers. Over the last 20 away games, spanning from December 2025 to October 2026, they have won 13, drawn 3 and lost 4, scoring 1.9 goals per game and conceding just 0.9. That is a record that speaks louder than any prophecy.

Cremonese, at home, tell a different story. Across their last 20 home games, from December 2025 to October 2026, they have won 4, drawn 7 and lost 9, scoring 0.95 per game and conceding 1.3. The home ground, for them, has been a place of quiet struggle. You must see the truth in the record, not in the hope.

The head-to-head between these two sides is dated — the last meeting was in March 2022, and all five recorded meetings stretch back to 2019. Those older games dilute current form, so we lean on what the teams are doing now. And what they are doing now points one way, clearly.

Benevento arrive in fine form: two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They have failed to score in none of those five. Cremonese, by contrast, have won two, drawn one and lost two, and have failed to score in two of their last five. The expected-goals numbers tell the same tale — Benevento average 1.86 per game across six recent matches, while Cremonese average just 0.8. Against them, Benevento concede 0.62 per game; Cremonese concede 1.38. The gap is not small, friend.

The counter-argument, if you must, is that the very recent form gap is narrower than the venue records suggest. Both sides sit on 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across their last 10 games. Cremonese did pick up 1 point from a 0-0 draw at Arezzo three weeks ago, and their 2-0 win at Mantova four days ago showed they can score. But a 2-0 away win does not rewrite a home record of 4 wins in 20 games. The past is a powerful teacher, but the present is the only one that matters.

The market prices Benevento's win at 2.7, implying a 37.04% chance. My reading of the evidence — the away record, the scoring output, the defensive solidity, the expected-goals numbers — puts the true probability well above that figure. The force is with the visitors, and it is not a whisper.

Key Points:

• Benevento's away record: 13W 3D 4L in 20 games, 1.9 scored per game, 0.9 conceded

• Cremonese's home record: 4W 7D 9L in 20 games, 0.95 scored per game, 1.3 conceded

• Benevento have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Cremonese failed to score in 2 of 5

• Head-to-head is entirely historical (last meeting March 2022); current form and venue records carry the weight

• Expected goals: Benevento 1.86 for / 0.62 against vs Cremonese 0.8 for / 1.38 against

The wise choice, in this moment, is to back the away win.