Cremonese vs Benevento Prediction

Cremonese host Benevento on 31 October in Serie B, and the venue records paint a picture that is hard to ignore.

Over the last 20 away games, Benevento have won 13, drawn 3 and lost 4, averaging 2.1 points per game. They score 1.9 goals per outing on the road and concede just 0.9, with 10 clean sheets in that span. Only twice in 20 away fixtures have they failed to score. Cremonese, by contrast, have won just 4 of their last 20 home games, drawing 7 and losing 9. They average 0.95 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home, and have failed to score in 10 of those 20 matches.

The xG numbers from recent matches sharpen the picture. Benevento have generated 1.86 expected goals per game across their last six matches with xG data, while suffering just 0.62 against. Cremonese have created 0.8 per game over their last five such matches but have been exposed for 1.38 against. In this specific home-versus-away matchup, the attacking and defensive numbers both tilt toward the visitors.

Benevento's recent form is in sync with their away record. They won 3–0 at Arezzo on 24 October and drew 1–1 with Catanzaro at home on 27 October, scoring in every one of their last five matches. Their last five games have produced 9 goals for them at 1.8 per game. Cremonese's most recent result was a 2–0 away win at Mantova on 27 October, but before that they lost 0–1 at home to Juve Stabia on 24 October and 1–3 at Pisa on 17 October. Their last five games have seen them score just 4 goals at 0.8 per game.

The head-to-head is entirely historical — the five meetings on record span from 2019 to 2022, with no fixture within the last 12 months. At Cremonese's ground those older meetings produced 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss for the hosts, but that record is dated and does not carry the weight of the current venue statistics.

The counter-case for Cremonese is that they won their most recent game and that the head-to-head, while old, shows they are not without a result at home against this opponent. Their last 10 games across all venues show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, the same record as Benevento, and they have kept 5 clean sheets in that span compared to Benevento's 3. But those 10-game figures are all-venue and do not isolate the home-versus-away dynamic that defines this fixture.

Key Points:

• Benevento's last 20 away games: 13W 3D 4L, 1.9 goals scored per game, 0.9 conceded

• Cremonese's last 20 home games: 4W 7D 9L, 0.95 goals scored per game, 1.3 conceded

• Benevento have scored in all of their last 5 matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 2 of 5

• xG data: Benevento 1.86 for / 0.62 against; Cremonese 0.8 for / 1.38 against

• Head-to-head is 4+ years old with no meetings in the last 12 months

The numbers point one way, and the market's 37.04% implied probability for Benevento to win at 2.7 does not fully price in the gap between these two venue records. My read is that the visitors are more likely than the market suggests.

Verdict: Benevento away win.