Preview
Right, so we've got Cuiaba hosting Avai on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear lean. Cuiaba at home are the ones to back, and here's why.
Over their last 20 home games, Cuiaba have picked up 8 wins, 8 draws and just 4 losses — 1.6 points a game. The real tell is the defensive side: 10 clean sheets in 20 home fixtures and just 0.7 goals conceded per game. And their last two home outings? 2-0 over Ponte Preta and 3-0 against Nautico Recife. That's a team at home in the zone, mates.
Now look at Avai on the road. Twenty away games, 4 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses. 0.75 points a game. They've conceded 1.75 a game on the road and kept just 2 clean sheets in 20. Their last two away trips ended 0-3 at Criciuma and 1-2 at Goias. Across their last five matches, they've conceded 8 and kept zero clean sheets. That's a team that's leaking goals wherever they go, and the away record makes it worse.
The head-to-head's a bit thin on recent stuff — just one meeting in the last 12 months, back in June, when Avai edged it 1-0 at their own ground. No meeting at Cuiaba's ground in that window, so we're leaning on the venue records and current form. The older meetings stretch back to 2022 and 2025, which is historical territory and doesn't really tell us much about how this one plays out.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a one-note tipster. Cuiaba's most recent game was a 0-0 draw at Vila Nova, and they did lose 0-3 to CRB two weeks ago. Avai bounced back with a 2-1 win over Londrina at home, so they're not completely without a spark. But one win in five doesn't shift the picture much, and that win came at home, not on the road where they've been in the doldrums.
Key Points:
- Cuiaba home: 8W 8D 4L in 20 games, 10 clean sheets, 0.7 conceded per game
- Avai away: 4W 3D 13L in 20 games, 2 clean sheets, 1.75 conceded per game
- Cuiaba won their last two home games 2-0 and 3-0
- Avai lost their last two away games 0-3 and 1-2
- Only one H2H meeting in the last 12 months (Avai 1-0 at their ground)
The market prices Cuiaba at 1.68, which works out to about 59.52%. I'd put their chances a touch higher than that, around 65%, given the difference in the home and away numbers and the form on either side. That's a solid edge for the home side.
My pick: Cuiaba home win.
Match time