Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Prediction

Ag man, this is one of those matches where the table tells you one story but the form tells another! Changchun Yatai might be rock bottom of the Super League with just 19 points, but these ouens have actually found some legs at home recently. Unbeaten in their last four at home with two wins and two draws, including cracking draws against Tianjin Teda (2-2) and Hangzhou Greentown (3-3). They're scoring 1.75 goals per home game - not bad for a team that's supposed to be useless!

Then you've got Beijing Guoan sitting pretty in 4th place with 51 points, but their recent form has been absolutely shocking, my bru! Just 0.80 points per game in their last 10 matches, and away from home? It's a disaster - zero wins in their last five away trips! They're conceding 3.2 goals per away game, which is just pathetic for a top-four side. Recent away losses include a 1-2 defeat to Sichuan Jiuniu (who are 12th!) and they even got hammered 6-0 by Shandong Luneng.

The head-to-head shows Beijing normally dominates, but Changchun have beaten them at home before. With Beijing's current away form being worse than a vegetarian's BBQ, I'm backing the home side here. Changchun have found some fighting spirit at home, while Beijing look like they've already checked out for the season.

Key Points:

• Changchun unbeaten in last 4 home games (2W, 2D)

• Beijing winless in last 5 away games (0W, 1D, 4L)

• Beijing conceding 3.2 goals per away game - defensive shambles!

• Changchun scoring 1.75 goals per home game

• Beijing's recent form (0.80 PPG) worse than Changchun's (1.10 PPG)

This has all the makings of a proper upset. The bottom team showing some fight at home against the top-four team who can't buy a win on the road. I'm backing Changchun to continue their home resurgence!