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Right then, let's fire up the braai and get stuck into this one! On paper, you'd look at the league table and think Jong PSV should have this easy - they're sitting pretty in 4th with 21 points while De Graafschap are languishing down in 13th with just 13 points. But football's not played on paper, boet!
The Super Boers have been drawing everything lately - five draws in their last ten games, including three 1-1s in their last four matches. They're not exactly setting the world alight at home either, winning just 20% of their home games this season. But here's where it gets interesting... when these two teams meet, the form book goes out the window!
De Graafschap absolutely owns this head-to-head. We're talking 7 wins out of 9 meetings, and at home they're unbeaten with a 75% win rate against Jong PSV. The recent meetings have been goal fests too - 2-1, 3-1, 4-2, 3-1... you get the picture. Both teams have found the net in 8 of those 9 encounters.
Jong PSV come into this on the back of a hiding from league leaders ADO Den Haag (0-3 loss), but they've been scoring freely on their travels - 2.40 goals per game away from home. The problem is they also leak goals like a sieve, conceding 2.20 per game on the road.
Looking at the stats, both teams are scoring regularly. De Graafschap have netted in 70% of their recent games, while Jong PSV are at 60%. With both defenses looking about as solid as a paper cup and that H2H history screaming "goals", I'm leaning towards both teams getting on the scoresheet again.
The odds for both teams to score at 1.40 look like decent value given the patterns. Eight out of nine times these two have met, both have scored. That's the kind of consistency I like with my beer and BBQ!