Derby vs Leicester Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Derby and Leicester, separated by just two points in the table but miles apart when it comes to recent form, if you ask me.

Derby have been decent lately, haven't they? Six wins in their last ten games, that's proper stuff. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game and keeping things tighter at the back with only 1.1 conceded. They've had some decent results too - put Swansea away 2-1, beat Blackburn 2-1, saw off Hull City 2-1, and even gave Sheffield United a proper hiding 3-1. Only lost 2-1 to Middlesbrough last time out, and they're no mugs sitting second in the table. At home, they're winning 60% of their games, which is solid.

Leicester, on the other hand, are having a bit of a nightmare, aren't they? Only three wins in ten, that's not good enough. Conceding 1.6 goals per game and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten matches - that's shocking, that is. They've lost to Sheffield United, got stuffed 3-0 by Southampton, lost to Blackburn and Millwall. Not great reading for the away fans, is it?

Historically, Leicester have had Derby's number, winning five of the eight meetings. But that's ancient history, mate. The last meeting was back in 2022, and both teams are completely different now.

Looking at how they play, Derby are more direct - less possession but they make their shots count when they get them. Leicester have more of the ball but their shooting accuracy is poor. More shots doesn't mean more goals, does it?

The odds have Leicester as slight favorites at 2.55, Derby at 2.70. That seems wrong to me given the recent form. Derby are playing better, scoring more, conceding less, and they're at home. Sometimes the bookies get it wrong, and this might be one of those times.

Both teams to score? Well, both sides have seen BTTS in 70% of their recent games, and historically seven out of eight meetings saw both teams score. But with Leicester's defence being about as solid as a chocolate teapot, I fancy Derby to edge this one.

Key Points:

• Derby in much better recent form (6 wins vs 3 wins in last 10)

• Leicester haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 matches

• Derby winning 60% of home games

• Leicester conceding 1.6 goals per game away from home

• Odds look generous for Derby home win

Simple as this - Derby are playing better football, they're at home, and Leicester can't defend. The value's there for the taking.