Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

Right, so we've got Derby hosting Wrexham on 10 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear lean.

Wrexham have been the better side of late. Their last five reads 2W 2D 1L — a 2-1 win over Southampton at home, a 1-1 draw with Burnley, a 0-0 at Swansea, and a 3-0 away at Millwall. That's 1.6 points per game. Derby, meanwhile, have managed just 1W 1D 3L in the same stretch, with 0.8 points per game. The gap is real.

And it's not just the last five. Over the last 10 games, Wrexham sit at 2W 4D 4L (1.0 ppg) while Derby are at 1W 3D 6L (0.6 ppg). Derby have won just one in ten, and they've lost both of their recent home games — 1-2 to Birmingham on 12 September and 0-1 to West Brom on 9 September. That's a worrying pattern for a team expected to be competitive at home.

Now, the venue record tells a story too. Wrexham's away numbers over 20 games are 9W 5D 6L, 1.6 points per game, with 8 clean sheets and 1.25 goals conceded per game. Derby's home numbers over 20 games are 7W 4D 9L, 1.25 points per game, 5 clean sheets and 1.3 conceded per game. Wrexham are the more productive and more secure side on the road.

The head-to-head is small — just two meetings — but the one that matters is the recent one: on 4 January at Derby's ground, Wrexham won 2-1. The other, back in September 2025, was a 1-1 draw at Wrexham's end and is historical record only. So Wrexham have the edge in the recent fixture at this venue.

The xG numbers back it up. Wrexham's defensive xG against over four recent games is 0.87 per game, while Derby's is 1.69 per game. That's a big difference — Wrexham are keeping opponents out far more effectively.

The counter-argument? Derby do score at home — 1.2 goals per game over 20 home games — and 13 of those 20 saw both teams find the net. They're not a team that sits back and folds. And Wrexham's 0-6 loss to West Ham away on 11 September shows they can be exposed on the road. Plus, Derby's xG for is 1.12 per game, so they do create chances even when the results don't show it.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Wrexham are in better form, have the better away record, won the recent meeting at this ground, and their defence is holding up far better than Derby's. I'd put Wrexham's chances of winning at around 46%, which sits comfortably above the market's 38.17% view of the away win at 2.62.

Key Points:

• Wrexham: 2W 2D 1L in last 5; Derby: 1W 1D 3L

• Wrexham away record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games; Derby home: 7W 4D 9L

• Wrexham won the recent H2H at Derby's ground (2-1, 4 January)

• Wrexham xG against: 0.87 per game vs Derby's 1.69 per game

• Derby lost both recent home games (1-2, 0-1)

My pick: Wrexham away win.