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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Derby vs Wrexham

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:1HT 1–0

Match Timeline

5'
Sondre Langas🟨
Yellow Card
9'
Sammie Szmodics⚽
Normal Goal → Mohammed Fuseini
15'
Josh Windass🔄
Substitution 1 → Oliver Rathbone
52'
Ryan Hedges🟨
Yellow Card
64'
Lewis O'Brien🔄
Substitution 2 → Sam Smith
64'
Issa Kabore🔄
Substitution 3 → Danny Imray
71'
Oliver Rathbone🟨
Yellow Card
72'
Sammie Szmodics🔄
Substitution 2 → Rhian Brewster
72'
Mohammed Fuseini🔄
Substitution 1 → Henrik Wendel Meister
74'
Alex Mowatt🟨
Yellow Card
84'
Bobby Clark🔄
Substitution 3 → Oscar Fraulo
84'
Carlton Morris🔄
Substitution 4 → Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
85'
Zak Vyner🔄
Substitution 4 → George Dobson
85'
Jacques Ekomié🔄
Substitution 5 → Ryan·Longman
88'
Oliver Rathbone⚽
Normal Goal → Kieffer Moore
90+1'
Kieffer Moore🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

0.56expected_goals1.32
301Passes accurate372
4Shots insidebox10
6Shots outsidebox3
1Blocked Shots5
6Free Kicks10
4Shots on Goal3
2Goalkeeper Saves3
5Shots off Goal5
394Total passes463
10Total Shots13
3Yellow Cards2
1Corner Kicks8
0Offsides3
10Fouls6
0Red Cards0
45Ball Possession55

Tipster previews (5)

Pajimon

Wrexham's Away Record Points to a Derby Win

The pickWrexham win

Chance
45%
Odds
2.62
Model EV
+17.9%

Right, so we've got Derby hosting Wrexham on 10 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a nice flavour to it — like a proper braai with the right cut of meat on the coals. The strongest case here is straightforward. Wrexham's away record over their last 20 games is 9 wins…

Mr Simple

Wrexham's Away Form Gives Them the Edge at Derby

The pickWrexham win

Chance
46%
Odds
2.62
Model EV
+20.5%

Right, so we've got Derby hosting Wrexham on 10 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear lean. Wrexham have been the better side of late. Their last five reads 2W 2D 1L — a 2-1 win over Southampton at home, a 1-1 draw with Burnley, a 0-0 at…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Derby

1W 3D 6L0.60 pts/game

Wrexham

2W 4D 4L1.00 pts/game

Per game

Derby at home vs Wrexham away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+90Wrexham
Venue edge
+60Wrexham
Rating period
Match snapshot
Derby versus Wrexham: long term Elo, before the match
DerbyHomeRatingWrexhamAway
Strength
1,468Overall1,557
1,472Match venue1,531
1,472At home1,526
1,456Away1,531
Attack & defence
1,474Attack1,507
1,509Defence1,519
1,434Home attack1,519
1,490Away attack1,482
1,541Home defence1,485
1,498Away defence1,529
Match profile
1,537Goal environment1,553
1,455Home goals1,555
1,582Away goals1,498
1,485Possession1,498
Specialist ratings
1,495Set-piece attack1,499
1,494Set-piece defence1,498
1,451Close games1,555
1,469Winning margin1,560

Match venue compares Derby at home with Wrexham away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

DerbyDerby1:1

Starting XI

31J. VickersG
26R. HedgesD
4D. OzohM
8B. ClarkM
9C. MorrisF
28D. SandersonD
20A. MowattM
11S. SzmodicsM
6S. LangåsD
16M. FuseiniM
23J. WardD

WrexhamWrexham1:1

Starting XI

22A. PattersonG
6J. WorrallD
3J. EkomiéM
17C. O'HareM
19K. MooreF
5D. HyamD
27L. O'BrienM
10J. WindassM
26Z. VynerD
8B. WhitemanM
12I. KaboréM