Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

The force is strong with Wrexham, and it shows on the road. Over the last 20 away games, Wrexham have won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, averaging 1.6 points per game. That is a record that speaks for itself, and it speaks louder than Derby's home numbers, which sit at 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses across 20 home fixtures.

But do not be fooled by the numbers alone. Look at the recent form, and the picture sharpens. Derby have won just one of their last five matches — a 2–0 away at Portsmouth on 1 September — and have lost three, including 0–1 to West Brom and 1–2 to Birmingham at home. Their points per game over that stretch is 0.8, and they have conceded 7 goals in those five games. Wrexham, by contrast, have won two of their last five, including a 2–1 over Southampton at home on 19 September, and their points per game stands at 1.6. Over the last 10 games, Wrexham average 1.0 points per game to Derby's 0.6. The gap is there, and it is not small.

The head-to-head at this ground adds weight to the argument. On 4 January 2026, Wrexham came to Derby's ground and won 2–1. That is the only recent meeting between these sides within the last 12 months. The older 1–1 draw at Wrexham's ground in September 2025 is historical record only, and the dates span three months, so the older game dilutes the current picture. What matters is that Wrexham have beaten Derby here before, and they have done so in the recent window.

The xG data from recent games paints a further picture. Wrexham's defensive xG against sits at 0.87 per game across four matches, while Derby's defensive xG against is 1.69 per game over the same coverage. Wrexham have kept opponents to 4 goals in those four games; Derby have conceded 8. That is a gap that is hard to ignore, and it tells you that Wrexham's back line on the road is a different creature from Derby's at home.

Now, the other side must be heard, for that is the way of the wise. Derby do have a home record that includes 13 of their last 20 home games seeing both teams score, and they have failed to score in only 2 of those 20. Wrexham's away record does show 6 games without a goal in 20, and their 0–6 defeat to West Ham on 11 September is a wound that has not fully healed. The 0–0 draw at Swansea on 5 September also reminds us that Wrexham can go quiet. And Derby's xG for is 1.12 per game, which means they do create chances, even if the results have not followed.

Yet the weight of the evidence leans one way. Wrexham arrive with the better recent form, the stronger away record, the recent head-to-head win at this ground, and the better defensive numbers. Derby's last five games tell a story of a team that is struggling to find a rhythm, and the home record, while not poor, does not offer the same comfort. The wise one sees the balance, and the balance tips.

Key Points:

• Wrexham's last 20 away games: 9W 5D 6L, 1.6 points per game

• Derby's last 5 matches: 1W 1D 3L, 0.8 points per game

• Wrexham won 2–1 at Derby's ground on 4 January 2026

• Wrexham's xG against: 0.87 per game vs Derby's 1.69 per game

• Wrexham's last 10: 2W 4D 4L, 1.0 ppg; Derby's last 10: 1W 3D 6L, 0.6 ppg

The wise choice, in this moment, is to back the away win. Wrexham at 2.62.