Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

Wrexham walk into this one with the better numbers, and the market hasn't fully priced that in.

The form gap is the first thing that jumps out. Over their last five matches, Wrexham have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss for 1.6 points per game, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Derby, by contrast, have managed 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses for 0.8 points per game, scoring 4 and conceding 7. That's a 0.8-point-per-game gap in the most recent window, and it's not close.

The venue records tell the same story. Across 20 away games, Wrexham have won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, averaging 1.6 points per game and keeping 8 clean sheets. Derby at home over 20 games have won 7, drawn 4 and lost 9, averaging 1.25 points per game with just 5 clean sheets. Wrexham's away record is the better one on every meaningful measure — more wins, fewer losses, more clean sheets, and a higher points-per-game figure.

The head-to-head at this ground adds another layer. In January 2026, Wrexham came to Derby's ground and won 2–1. That's the only recent meeting at this venue, and it went to the visitors. The older meeting at Wrexham's ground in September 2025 was a 1–1 draw, but that's historical record and doesn't carry the same weight.

The xG numbers back the defensive story. Wrexham have faced 0.87 xG per game across four recent matches, while Derby have faced 1.69 xG per game over four recent matches. That's a significant difference in the quality of opposition they're absorbing, and it suggests Wrexham's backline is the more reliable unit.

The counter-argument is that Derby's home record over 20 games isn't a disaster — 7 wins is respectable, and they did pick up a 2–0 win at Portsmouth on 1 September. Also, Wrexham's 0–6 defeat at West Ham on 11 September is a blemish that reminds us this is a Championship fixture with genuine unpredictability. Derby's xG for at 1.12 per game suggests they're creating chances even when the results don't come.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Wrexham are in better form, their away record is superior, the head-to-head at this ground went their way, and their defensive numbers are the more solid. The market prices Wrexham at 38.17% (odds 2.62), but the football evidence supports a higher probability. I'd put Wrexham's chance of winning at roughly 45%, which sits comfortably above the market's implied figure.

Key Points:

• Wrexham's last 5: 2W 2D 1L (1.6 ppg) vs Derby's 1W 1D 3L (0.8 ppg)

• Wrexham away record: 9W 5D 6L over 20 games; Derby home: 7W 4D 9L

• H2H at Derby's ground: Wrexham won 2–1 in January 2026

• Wrexham xG against: 0.87 per game vs Derby's 1.69 per game

• Market prices Wrexham at 38.17%; the evidence supports a higher probability

Verdict: Wrexham away win at 2.62.