Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

The numbers point one way, and I respect that. Wrexham's last 20 away games read 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses — 1.6 points per game. Derby's last 20 home games read 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses — 1.25 points per game. Wrexham concede 1.25 per game on the road and keep 8 clean sheets in 20; Derby concede 1.3 at home and keep 5. The last meeting at Derby's ground, on 4 January 2026, finished 1–2 to Wrexham. In their last five matches, Wrexham have won two, drawn two and lost one, averaging 1.6 points per game. Derby have won one, drawn one and lost three, averaging 0.8. Wrexham's xG against over four recent games sits at 0.87 per game, while Derby's xG against is 1.69 per game over four recent games. That is a gap I cannot ignore.

But I will not hand you a bet on a 43-cent certainty. Derby have won 7 of their last 20 home games, and Wrexham's form is not spotless. They lost 0–6 to West Ham on 11 September and drew 0–0 at Swansea on 5 September. Their away record still carries 6 losses in 20. Derby's xG for is 1.12 per game over four recent matches, which means they are creating chances even when the scoreboard does not reflect it. The head-to-head is thin — two meetings in the available record, one a Wrexham win within the last 12 months and one a draw that is historical. It does not tell a long story, and I will not pretend it does.

Key Points:

• Wrexham's away record (9W 5D 6L, 1.6 ppg) outperforms Derby's home record (7W 4D 9L, 1.25 ppg) across 20 games each.

• Wrexham won the last meeting at Derby's ground on 4 January 2026 (1–2).

• Derby's last five: 1W 1D 3L; Wrexham's last five: 2W 2D 1L.

• Wrexham's xG against (0.87 per game) is well below Derby's xG against (1.69 per game) over four recent games each.

• The head-to-head spans only two meetings, one within the last 12 months and one historical.

I do not bet on 43-cent outcomes. The evidence tilts toward Wrexham, but it does not tilt hard enough for me to put money on it. No bet.