Dijon host Rodez in Ligue 2 on 24 October, and the numbers paint a clear picture of a home side in control against a visitor who has been on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Dijon's record at home over 20 games is 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 2.35 goals scored per game and just 1.25 conceded. That is a solid foundation. Rodez, by contrast, have won 8 of their last 20 away games, drawn 7 and lost 5, scoring 1.55 per game and conceding 1.45. The gap in home-and-away records is real, and it favours Dijon.
The recent form tells the same story. Dijon have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 and losing 1, and they have scored in every single one of those matches. Their last five games all finished with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. Rodez, however, have won just 1 of their last 5, losing 4. Their current run is two consecutive defeats, both by a margin of at least 2 goals, and they failed to score in three of those five. The 0–3 loss to Montpellier at home on 19 October and the 0–2 defeat at Saint Etienne on 10 October underline how thin their attacking output has become.
The head-to-head is entirely historical. The four meetings on record date back to 2021 and 2023, so I will not treat them as a guide to what happens on 24 October. Dijon won 2 of those 4, drew 1 and lost 1, but those games are three to five years old and I do not build a case on them.
The counter-argument is that Dijon are not as bulletproof as their home record suggests. They lost their most recent game 2–4 at Reims on 16 October, and across their last 5 matches they have conceded 11 goals, averaging 2.2 per game with zero clean sheets. Their defence has been porous, and a team that concedes at that rate can be caught by a determined opponent. Rodez's away record over 20 games is not a disaster — 8 wins and 7 draws means they have a record of 15 non-losses out of 20 — and the fact that 14 of those 20 away games saw both teams score suggests they are not without a route to the goal.
Key Points:
- Dijon's home record: 12W 4D 4L in 20 games, 2.35 scored per game, 1.25 conceded per game.
- Rodez's last 5: 1W 0D 4L, lost the last two with 0 goals scored, 2 goals conceded per game.
- Dijon's last 5: 3W 1D 1L, scored in all 5, over 2.5 in all 5, BTTS in all 5.
- Head-to-head is 3 to 5 years old; no meetings within 12 months of kickoff.
- Dijon's defence has conceded 2.2 per game in the last 5 with no clean sheets.
I have looked at every available price for this fixture and I cannot find one that I rate above the bar I set for myself. Dijon's home win is the most likely outcome, but the 2–4 loss at Reims and the leaky defence keep me from calling it a certainty. The over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score markets look attractive on the numbers, but Rodez's recent inability to score and the fact that Dijon's last five games were all high-scoring do not give me the confidence I need. When the edge is not there, I pass. No bet.
