Dunkerque vs Guingamp Prediction by Pajimon

Guingamp walk into this one at Dunkerque's ground with the kind of form that makes you want to crack open a cold one and grin. Three wins from their last five, 1.8 points per game, 8 goals scored and just 4 conceded. Their current run is two straight wins — 5 goals scored, 0 conceded — and that includes a 3-0 hammering of Saint Etienne at home on 31 October and a 2-0 away scalp of Clermont Foot on 23 October. The man is in the zone, bra.

Dunkerque, on the other hand, have been struggling to find their feet. Three losses from their last five, 0.8 points per game, and they've failed to score in three of those five. Their last outing was a 0-1 loss at Rodez on 30 October, and before that they were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Metz with a red card in the 61st minute. The 0-4 friendly loss to RAAL La Louvière on 2 October doesn't count for league purposes, but it does paint a picture of a team that's leaking goals. Their last 10 games across all venues show 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses at 0.8 points per game, scoring just 0.7 per game.

Now, the counter-argument. Dunkerque at home over their last 20 games are 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses — 1.4 points per game, conceding just 1.1 per game. That's a solid home record. And the head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months was a 0-0 draw on 6 February, with a Dunkerque red card in the 59th minute. The older meetings at Dunkerque's ground (1-0 and 3-1) are historical and don't tell us much about where these teams are now. Plus, Guingamp's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses — they lose half their away games. That's a real concern when you're travelling.

But here's the thing: Guingamp's recent away form is telling. They won 2-0 at Clermont on 23 October. Their last 10 games show 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses at 1.4 points per game, scoring 1.6 per game. Dunkerque's last 10 are 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses at 0.8 points per game, scoring 0.7 per game. The gap between these two sides right now is massive, and I don't think the home record or the 0-0 H2H is enough to bridge it.

Key Points:

• Guingamp: 3W 0D 2L in last 5, 1.8 ppg, 8 scored, 4 conceded; current run of 2 wins (5 scored, 0 conceded)

• Dunkerque: 1W 1D 3L in last 5, 0.8 ppg, 4 scored, 9 conceded; failed to score in 3 of 5

• H2H at this venue (last 12 months): 0-0 draw on 6 February 2026

• Guingamp away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games (1.0 ppg)

• Dunkerque home record: 7W 7D 6L in 20 games (1.4 ppg)

I'm going with the Guingamp away win. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the market at 2.52 is pricing them at 39.68% — I rate their chance a touch higher than that based on where these two sides are right now.