Morecambe vs Yeovil Town Prediction

Bottom-Of-The-Table Battle At The Mazuma

Preview

Right then, let's have a proper look at this basement battle down at the Mazuma Stadium. Two sides struggling for form meet in what could be a proper six-pointer, though looking at the numbers, it might be more of a snoozefest!

Morecambe come into this off the back of a decent 2-0 win over Brackley Town, which'll have given them a bit of confidence after getting hammered 4-2 by York in their previous game. The Shrimps have been finding the net reasonably often - 1.4 goals per game over their last 10 - but they're also shipping them at the other end with 1.8 conceded per game. At home, they've been a bit hit and miss, winning just 25% of their last four on their own patch.

Yeovil, on the other hand, are in a right old mess going forward. Five goals in 10 games? That's proper relegation form that is! They've failed to score in seven of their last 10 matches, including blanks against Southend, Scunthorpe, and Wealdstone. Their away form is shocking too - 80% losses in their last five on the road. The Glovers are averaging just 0.5 goals per game overall, which is frankly pathetic at this level.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Historically, Morecambe have had Yeovil's number, winning five of the eight meetings between the two sides. But those games were generally high-scoring affairs, with seven of eight seeing over 2.5 goals. The problem is, this current Yeovil side couldn't score in a brothel with a fistful of fifties!

Looking at the recent form, Morecambe have shown they can score against struggling sides - they put four past Boston United away and got two against Brackley. Yeovil, meanwhile, haven't scored in their last three games and have only managed one goal in their last five matches. That's not just bad, that's 'we might as well not bother turning up' bad.

The goal expectancy numbers have Morecambe at 1.43 and Yeovil at 1.05, but I reckon those Yeovil numbers are generous given their recent displays. They've got zero momentum, zero confidence, and zero goals in their locker.

Key Points:

  • Yeovil have scored just 5 goals in their last 10 matches (0.5 per game)
  • The Glovers have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 games
  • Morecambe kept a clean sheet in their last home game (2-0 vs Brackley)
  • Yeovil have lost 80% of their last 5 away matches
  • Historically high-scoring encounters, but current form suggests otherwise

When you've got one side that can't buy a goal and another that's been shipping them but also capable of scoring, the both teams to score market looks all wrong to me. The bookies have BTTS No at 2.25, which seems cracking value when you consider Yeovil's attacking woes. They've got one of the worst attacks in the entire league and are coming off three straight blanks. Sometimes the stats tell a simple story, and this one's screaming 'Yeovil won't score'.

Match time
Recommended Bet
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE NO
Odds
2.25
+EV
+46.3%
Estimated Chance65%
Stake & Profit
Stake:-Profit:0.00
Outcome
OPEN