Empoli vs Palermo Prediction

Palermo arrive at Empoli's ground riding a wave that would make any goals coach weep with joy. Four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 7, with both teams finding the net in every single one of those matches. The 5-2 thrashing of Mantova in Coppa Italia and the 3-1 over Sampdoria at home showed a side that is not just scoring, but scoring in volume. Their away record over 20 games shows 8 of 20 going over 2.5 goals, and the two most recent meetings between these sides — a 3-2 at Palermo and a 1-3 at Empoli — both delivered the goals I live for.

But here's where the party gets complicated. Empoli at home over 20 games have gone under 2.5 in 15 of those 20. That is a 75% under record that is hard to ignore. Their last five matches at all venues have seen under 2.5 in three of five, and their last 10 have been under 2.5 in seven of 10. Empoli's home scoring average is 1.25 per game and their conceding average is 0.95 per game. They lost their last two — 0-1 to Arezzo at home and 1-2 at Modena — and in those two games they scored just one and conceded three. The xG data on Empoli's recent matches shows 0.81 expected goals for and 0.94 against, which paints a picture of a side that is not creating or conceding in volume.

The counter-case for goals is real but not overwhelming. Palermo's away record over 20 games has 12 of 20 under 2.5, which is the flip side of the same coin. Empoli's home record is the single most relevant data set here, and it screams low-scoring. The head-to-head recent meetings went over 2.5, yes, but those are just two games. Empoli's home record is 20 games deep, and the weight of that record is hard to shake.

Key Points:

• Palermo have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 7, with both teams scoring in all 5

• Empoli's home record over 20 games: 15 of 20 under 2.5 goals

• Both recent head-to-head meetings (3-2 and 1-3) went over 2.5

• Empoli lost their last 2, scoring just 1 goal in those games

• Empoli's home scoring average is 1.25 per game; Palermo's away scoring average is 1.2 per game

The Big O verdict: I want to be the guy who tells you "over 2.5, baby!" but the numbers at Empoli's ground are telling me to sit on my hands. The football evidence simply does not give me the confidence to back the over at the available price, and I'd rather pass than chase. No Bet.