Empoli vs Palermo Prediction

Empoli have a genuine case to be the underdog here, and as someone who always roots for the little guy, I want to lay it out. Their home record over 20 games is the kind of record that keeps the small team alive: 6 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses, with 0.95 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets in 20. That 50% draw rate at home is remarkable, and their home scoring average of 1.25 per game edges out Palermo's away figure of 1.2. Empoli's home games have gone under 2.5 in 15 of those 20, which paints a picture of a tight, low-scoring home record where the little guy can hang on.

But the recent form tells a harder story. Empoli have lost their last two matches — 1–2 at Modena on 20 September and 0–1 at home to Arezzo on 11 September, where a red card in the 45th minute left them a man down for the second half. Their last five games have produced 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with just 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. The xG data from three recent games shows Empoli creating 0.81 per game and facing 0.94 per game, which is modest for a team trying to win at home. Their current run is two losses, scoring 1 and conceding 3.

Palermo, by contrast, are in genuine form. Their last five matches: 4 wins and 1 draw, 14 goals scored, 7 conceded, 2.8 per game on the attack. Their last ten: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 2.3 points per game. They won both recent head-to-head meetings — 3–2 at their own ground on 7 February and 3–1 at Empoli's on 7 December. The xG data from two recent games shows Palermo creating 1.6 per game, well above Empoli's 0.81. Palermo have scored in all five of their last five games, and four of those five went over 2.5.

The best counter-argument for Empoli is that home record. Over 20 home games, they have conceded just 0.95 per game and kept 6 clean sheets, while Palermo's away record shows 1.3 conceded per game and only 5 clean sheets in 20. Empoli's home games have gone under 2.5 in 15 of 20, and their last ten matches have seen under 2.5 in 7 of 10. That is a consistent, low-scoring home record. However, that 20-game home record spans 11 months, and the older games dilute the current picture. Empoli's last home game was a loss, and the head-to-head in the last 12 months has been a Palermo story: two wins, six goals to Empoli's three.

Key Points:

• Empoli's home record over 20 games: 6W 10D 4L, 0.95 conceded per game, 6 clean sheets

• Palermo's last 5: 4W 1D 0L, 2.8 scored per game; last 10: 7W 2D 1L

• Both recent head-to-head meetings were won by Palermo (3–2 and 3–1)

• Empoli lost their last 2 matches, scoring just 1 and conceding 3

• Empoli's home games have gone under 2.5 in 15 of 20

I love a good underdog story, but the football here does not give me the edge I need. Empoli's home record is solid, but their last two games were losses and the head-to-head in the last 12 months has gone entirely to Palermo. The price on an Empoli win at 3.85 reflects the market's 25.97% view, and my own reading of the form, the head-to-head and the xG data puts Empoli's true chance below that figure. There is no value in the little guy here — just a solid home record being outpaced by a team in genuine form. No Bet.