Estrela host Casa Pia at their ground on 24 October in the Primeira Liga, and the venue records tell a clear story. Over 20 home games, Estrela have won 7, drawn 7 and lost 6, averaging 1.4 points per game and 1.45 goals scored per match. Casa Pia's 20 away games produce 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, averaging 0.95 points per game and just 0.65 goals scored. The gap in points per game and in goals scored is the single most telling comparison in this fixture, and Casa Pia's 11 away losses in 20 games mark them as a team that struggles on the road.
The last 10 games across all venues widen the gap further. Estrela sit at 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, scoring 2 goals per game. Casa Pia manage 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, scoring 0.6 per game. The xG data sharpens the picture: across 5 recent matches with data, Casa Pia have generated 0.55 expected goals per game and scored zero actual goals, while conceding 12. Estrela have produced 1.46 xG per game and scored 7 goals in 4 matches. Casa Pia's attack is the weakest element in this fixture, and their defence is leaking at a rate that makes an away win a long shot.
The one wrinkle is the head-to-head at Estrela's ground over the last 12 months. Estrela won 4โ0 in March, but Casa Pia came away with a 2โ1 win in a July friendly. That 1โ1 split means this venue has not been one-sided, and both teams enter on a one-game winning run. Estrela's last five are 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; Casa Pia's are 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. Neither side has been dominant recently, and Estrela's home record still includes 6 losses and 7 draws in 20 games. Their xG against sits at 1.49 per game, which means their defence is not impenetrable.
Key Points:
- Estrela's home record (7W 7D 6L, 1.4 PPG) outperforms Casa Pia's away record (5W 4D 11L, 0.95 PPG)
- Casa Pia's last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, with 0.6 goals scored per game
- Head-to-head at Estrela's ground in the last 12 months: 1 win for each side
- Both teams are on a one-game winning run entering this fixture
- Estrela's xG against (1.49 per game) means their defence concedes regularly
The numbers favour Estrela, but the split head-to-head at this venue and the mixed recent form of both sides mean I cannot assign a probability high enough to feel certain. If it's not certain, it's not happening. No Bet.
