Empoli vs Palermo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Empoli and Palermo. The bookies have got Palermo as favorites at 2.30, which is a bit of a head-scratcher when you dig into the numbers.

Empoli are sitting pretty at home, unbeaten in their last six on their own patch. They've been grinding out results - four wins and four draws in their last ten, including that cracking 5-0 hammering of Bari. They're scoring a tidy 1.83 goals per game at home and keeping things tight at the back with just 0.83 conceded.

Palermo, for all their lofty position in 6th, have been proper hit-and-miss on their travels. They're only managing 0.80 goals per game away from home - that's relegation form, that is! They've got some big wins recently (5-0 against Carrarese and Pescara) but both were at home. On the road, they've managed just one win in their last five away games.

The head-to-head tells a story too - Empoli have dominated this fixture over the years, especially at home where they've won three and drawn one against Palermo. Last time they met, Empoli put four past them.

Both teams are defensively solid overall, each conceding just 0.90 goals per game. With Palermo's away scoring struggles and Empoli's tendency to draw at home (four draws in six home games), this looks like a tight, cagey affair.

Key Points:

• Empoli unbeaten in last 6 home games (2W, 4D)

• Palermo scoring just 0.80 goals per game away from home

• Empoli dominates historically vs Palermo (3W, 1D, 0L at home)

• Both teams conceding only 0.90 goals per game

• Palermo won just 1 of last 5 away matches

The value here is clearly on the Under 2.5 goals market at 1.75. Palermo simply don't travel well in front of goal, and Empoli's home games have been tight affairs. Both sides are defensively solid, and with Palermo's away scoring woes, I'd be surprised to see a goal-fest.