Virtus Entella vs Palermo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Virtus Entella and Palermo. On paper, you'd think Palermo have this sorted - sitting 6th in the table with 19 points, while Entella are down in 13th with 14. But football's not played on spreadsheets, is it?

Here's the thing - Entella have actually been proper decent at home lately. Unbeaten in their last 5 home games, with 3 wins and 2 draws. They're banging in 1.6 goals per game on their own patch and only letting in 0.8. That's the sort of home form that makes visiting teams nervous.

Palermo away from home? Different story entirely. Only 1 win in their last 5 away matches, and they've been shipping goals while struggling to score themselves. Recent away losses to Juve Stabia and Catanzaro don't exactly scream promotion contenders, do they?

Both teams have identical recent form over their last 10 games - 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses each. But the home/away split tells the real story here. Entella have turned their place into a bit of a fortress, while Palermo seem to leave their shooting boots at home when they travel.

The head-to-head does favor Palermo - they've won 3 and drawn 1 of the 4 meetings, with Entella never beating them. But that last meeting was a 2-2 draw, and both teams have scored in 3 of those 4 matches.

Looking at the recent results, Entella ground out a 1-0 win over Empoli and grabbed a point at Reggiana. Palermo, meanwhile, put 5 past Pescara but then lost 1-0 to Juve Stabia. It's all a bit up and down, isn't it?

The bookies have Palermo as slight favorites at 2.55, but given Entella's home form and Palermo's travel troubles, those odds might be a bit generous for the away side.

Key Points:

• Entella unbeaten in last 5 home games (3W-2D-0L)

• Palermo won just 1 of last 5 away matches

• Both teams identical recent form (3W-3D-4L last 10)

• Palermo dominate head-to-head but last meeting was 2-2 draw

• Entella scoring 1.6 goals per game at home, Palermo only 0.8 away

For me, this has got draw written all over it. Entella's home form is too solid to ignore, and Palermo's away form is too poor to back them with confidence. The odds of 3.10 for the draw look decent value given what we're seeing.