Farnham Town vs Braintree Prediction

The force is strong with this one, friends. And I speak of the force of goals, not the Force.

Farnham Town and Braintree meet at Farnham Town's ground on 24 October, and the numbers tell a story that is hard to argue with. At home, Farnham Town have won 12 of their last 20 games, drawing 3 and losing 5, averaging 1.95 points per game. They score 1.8 goals per game at home and concede 1.25. Braintree, on the other hand, have won just 3 of their last 20 away games, drawing 6 and losing 11, averaging 0.75 points per game. They score 1.65 per game on the road but concede 2.25. The gap between these two records is wide, and it points one direction.

And here is where the story sharpens. Both of these teams score in almost every match they play. Farnham Town have both teams scoring in 15 of their 20 home games. Braintree have both teams scoring in 18 of their 20 away games. Look at the last five for each side: Farnham Town, 5 out of 5. Braintree, 5 out of 5. Stretch the lens back to ten games and the pattern holds — 9 out of 10 for both. The goals come, whether the result pleases you or not. That is the way of things. A team that concedes 2.25 per game away will not keep a clean sheet at Farnham Town's ground, and a team that scores 1.8 per game at home will not fail to find the net.

Braintree arrive in a sorry state. Five games, five defeats. They have scored 8 and conceded 15 across that run, and their last five matches include losses to West Ham United U21, Truro City, Walton & Hersham, AFC Rushden & Diamonds, and Dorking Wanderers. A team that concedes 3 per game in that stretch is not going to hold a scoreless sheet at Farnham Town's ground. And Farnham Town, for all their mixed recent form — a loss to Salisbury, a draw with Truro City, a win over Weston-super-Mare — have scored in every one of their last five matches. They will find the net. Braintree, scoring 1.65 per game away, will find it too.

Now, I must be fair, for the wise one considers all sides. Farnham Town's recent form is not sparkling. They lost their last game, had a draw and a win before that, and have no head-to-head record against Braintree to lean upon. Their home record, while strong, does include 5 losses and 3 draws in 20 games. And Braintree, for all their misery, have scored in every one of their last five matches. A team that scores in every game is not one to dismiss entirely. The draw or the Braintree win are not impossible outcomes. But the evidence points firmly one way, and I do not see the force bending the other direction.

Key Points:

• Farnham Town have won 12 of 20 home games; Braintree have won just 3 of 20 away games

• Both teams scored in 5 of their last 5 matches each

• Farnham Town home BTTS: 15/20 yes; Braintree away BTTS: 18/20 yes

• Braintree are on a 5-game losing run, conceding 3 per game

• No head-to-head meetings on record

The force is with the goals. I recommend both teams to score, at 1.44.