Farnham Town vs Braintree Prediction

Right, so we've got Farnham Town at home to Braintree on 24 October, and if you've been following the form book, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Farnham Town have been solid at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 3 and lost 5, racking up 1.95 points per game. They're scoring 1.8 a game and only conceding 1.25, which is a tidy little operation. Four clean sheets in 20 home games shows they can shut teams down when they need to.

Now look at Braintree on the road. Their last 20 away games? Three wins, six draws, 11 losses. That's 0.75 points per game, and they're conceding 2.25 a game. That's not a team who travel well, is it? And their current form is... well, let's just say it's not pretty. Five straight losses. Zero points. They've gone down to West Ham United U21, Truro City, Walton & Hersham, AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Dorking Wanderers, conceding 15 goals in the process. That's three a game, and it's not a pretty sight.

The head-to-head is a blank – no meetings on record between these two – so we're flying on the venue records and current form, and both of those point the same way.

The counter-argument? Farnham Town's last five games have been a bit of a mixed bag. One win, two draws, two losses. They lost 1-2 to Salisbury on 10 October and drew 2-2 with Truro City on 6 October. So they're not flying, and they've not won since 26 September. Also, both teams have scored in every one of their last five games, so don't expect a 0-0. Braintree have found the net in all five of their recent defeats, which means they're not completely toothless.

But here's the thing: Farnham Town have scored in all five of their recent games, and at home they're averaging 1.8 a pop. Braintree are conceding 2.25 a game on the road. The home record says Farnham Town have won 12 of their 20 home games, and Braintree have won just 3 of their 20 away games. When you stack that up against a side that haven't won in five, the maths is hard to argue with.

The market has Farnham Town at 1.8, which prices them at about 55.56%. My read is they're a touch better than that – I'd put them at roughly 58%. The home record, the away record, and that five-game losing streak all line up. It's not a certainty – Farnham Town's recent form is patchy – but the weight of evidence says the hosts get the win.

Key Points:

• Farnham Town have won 12 of their last 20 home games, averaging 1.95 points per game

• Braintree have lost their last 5 matches, conceding 15 goals (3 per game)

• Braintree's away record: 3W 6D 11L in 20 games, 0.75 points per game

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

• Both teams have scored in all of their last 5 games, so expect goals

So my tip is the Farnham Town home win.