Inter vs Napoli Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the big one. Inter hosting Napoli, top versus third, with just four points between 'em. This is the sort of match that gets the blood pumping, and the stats tell a proper story.

Inter are sitting pretty at the summit, and they've been absolutely ruthless at home. In their last four games at their own gaff, they've been banging in three goals a game on average. That's not just against the minnows either – a 3-1 win over a decent Bologna side and a 4-0 demolition of Como, who are no mugs this season. They're on a roll, with seven wins from their last ten, and that lone draw was in the Super Cup. They're the league's top scorers for a reason.

Napoli, on the other hand, are a funny old side. They can go to the Stadio Olimpico and beat Lazio 2-0, or sneak a 1-0 win at Roma, but then they go and get turned over 1-0 by Udinese or held 2-2 by a struggling Verona. Their away record shows they're tight at the back, conceding just 0.60 goals per game on the road, but they only score about one themselves. They've kept clean sheets in half their last ten matches, which is impressive, but they haven't faced an attack like Inter's at home during that run.

Now, the head-to-head makes for interesting reading. These two have met nine times, and Inter have only won three. There have been four draws, including two of the last three meetings at Inter's place which both ended 1-1. Napoli actually won the last clash 3-1 back in October, so they won't be fearing this trip.

So, what's the play? Inter are favourites at 1.75, and you can see why. They're a machine at home. But Napoli's defence on the road is solid, and they know how to get a result here. The value might not be in picking a winner.

I'm looking at Both Teams to Score. Yes, Napoli keep clean sheets, but Inter's firepower is a different beast. Yes, Inter are strong at the back, but Napoli have shown they can score against the best – they put two past AC Milan and one past Juventus recently. The history says BTTS has landed in six of the nine past meetings. Inter have scored in nine of their last ten, Napoli in seven of theirs. I fancy both nets to ripple.

Key Points:

Inter are scoring 3 goals per game at home on average.

Napoli concede just 0.6 goals per game away but haven't faced an attack this potent recently.

Head-to-head record shows 4 draws in 9 matches, with 2 of the last 3 at Inter's ground ending 1-1.

Both teams have scored in 66.7% of their historical meetings.

• Napoli have scored in 7 of their last 10 matches, including against top-half sides.

In summary, this has all the makings of a proper top-of-the-table scrap. Inter will attack, Napoli will be organised and look to hit on the break. I can see goals at both ends, making Both Teams to Score - Yes the smart value pick here.