FC Zurich vs Lausanne Prediction

Wednesday night in the Swiss Super League sees two sides having a proper mare of a season go head-to-head, as FC Zurich host Lausanne in what looks like a relegation six-pointer in all but name. With just one point separating these two in 8th and 9th, and both treating defending like it's optional, I'm expecting a right old goal-fest at the Letzigrund.

Let's start with the hosts, and blimey, Zurich have been shipping goals for fun lately. Seven defeats in their last ten tells the story, including some absolute pastings – that 3-0 walloping by Young Boys (twice!), a 4-1 drubbing by Luzern, and a 4-3 thriller against Basel where they forgot how to defend for 90 minutes. In total, they've conceded 25 goals in their last ten outings, which is proper Sunday league stuff. But here's the thing – they're not exactly shy going forward either, netting 14 in that same run and smashing three past Winterthur and two against Grasshoppers at home. Their home record is bonkers: averaging 2.33 goals scored but a whopping 2.67 conceded per game. That's five goals per game average when Zurich are at home – defensive disaster meets attacking intent.

Now Lausanne roll into town with their own problems. They've only won one of their last ten (a cracking 3-1 away at Young Boys to be fair), but they've drawn four, so they're a tough nut to crack even if they don't win. That said, they took an absolute hiding at Thun recently (5-1), and they've got zero clean sheets in their last ten matches – not one, nil, nada. They've also been busy boys with four games in the last fortnight including that European trip to Sigma Olomouc, so fatigue might be a factor against a Zurich side who's had a lighter schedule.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading too. Lausanne nicked the last meeting 2-1, and historically these two can't help but score against each other – over 2.5 goals has landed in six of the last nine meetings. With both teams averaging over 3.4 goals per game in their recent fixtures combined, and the goal expectancies pointing towards over four goals in this match, the unders look about as safe as a chocolate teapot.

Key Points:

• Zurich's home games average exactly 5.0 goals per game (2.33 scored, 2.67 conceded)

• Lausanne have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches

• Both teams have conceded 20+ goals in their last 10 games combined

• Lausanne showing fatigue signs with 4 games in 14 days including European travel

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of the last 9 H2H meetings

• Goal expectancies suggest 4.3 total goals expected in this fixture

Summary:

Two teams who can't defend, both desperate for points, and a history of goal-filled encounters. The 1.64 on over 2.5 goals looks the business here – with these defensive records and attacking intent, we should see at least three goals without breaking a sweat. Back the overs.