Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Feyenoord at home to Heracles – on paper, it's a banker, innit? The league table says it all: Feyenoord sitting pretty in second, Heracles propping up the rest in 18th. And the head-to-head? Blimey, it's a horror show for Heracles. Feyenoord have won eight of the last nine meetings, including a proper 7-0 shellacking just a few months back. You'd think this is a walk in the park.
But hold your horses. Football's never that simple, is it? Let's talk about recent form, because that's where the story gets interesting. Feyenoord have been, let's be honest, a bit rubbish lately. Just two wins in their last ten games. At home? Even worse – only one win in their last six at the De Kuip. They're scoring, mind you – bagged 20 in those ten – but they're leaking goals like a sieve, conceding 21. Their last home game was a 4-3 loss to Sparta Rotterdam. Defensively, they're all over the shop.
Heracles ain't much better, but they've nicked three wins in ten. The key for them? They score goals on the road. In their last five away trips, they've found the net in four of them, including putting three past the mighty PSV in a 4-3 defeat. They haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten matches. Not one. Zero. Zilch.
So what does all this maths add up to? Goals. Lots of 'em. The head-to-head screams goals – eight of the nine meetings had over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in six of those nine. Looking at the recent run, Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 80% of their last ten, Heracles in 70%. When you've got one side that can't stop conceding and another that can't keep a clean sheet but can usually nick one, you've got a recipe for goals at both ends.
The bookies have Over 2.5 goals at a skinny 1.33, which tells you they fancy a few goals too. But for me, the better bit of value is in Both Teams to Score. At 1.70, it's worth a punt. Feyenoord should win, but at 1.22, there's no juice in that bet for me. Heracles are likely to get a consolation, just like they did against PSV, and Feyenoord's defence is charitable enough to oblige.
Key Points:
Feyenoord dominate the head-to-head (8 wins in 9) but are in poor recent form.
Heracles are bottom but score regularly away from home.
Both teams' defences are shaky: Feyenoord have 1 clean sheet in 10, Heracles have 0.
The last meeting ended 7-0 to Feyenoord.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of the last 9 H2H clashes.
Summary: This has all the makings of an entertaining, goal-filled affair. Feyenoord should have too much quality and get the three points, but Heracles have shown they can score against anyone on their day. With both defences looking vulnerable, backing both teams to find the net offers the best value.
