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Hello fellow underdog enthusiasts! Today we're looking at a matchup where the little guy might just have his day. Fluminense may sit comfortably in 7th place with 44 points, but our plucky Ceara, sitting 14th with 35 points, has some tricks up their sleeve!
Now, I know what you're thinking - Fluminense has been formidable at home with an 80% win rate and barely conceding goals (just 0.20 per home game). But here's where it gets interesting! Historically, when these two meet at Fluminense's place, the home team has only managed 1 win in 4 attempts. That's right - 3 draws in those encounters! Our little puppies have shown they can hold their own here.
Ceara's recent form hasn't been sparkling, but they've been stubborn away from home with a 40% draw rate in their last 5 away games. They've also shown they can bite when it matters, grabbing impressive victories against Sao Paulo (0-1) and Santos (3-0). Sure, they've had a goal drought recently, but sometimes the best time to back an underdog is when they're due!
Fluminense comes in with decent form, but they've had their stumbles too - losing 2-0 to Vasco and 2-1 to Mirassol in recent weeks. Their attack hasn't been exactly firing on all cylinders either, averaging just 1.20 goals per game.
With odds of 3.90 for the draw, I see some lovely value here. Ceara has shown they can frustrate bigger teams, and that historical head-to-head record at this venue gives me hope that our underdogs can come away with at least a point!
