Preview
Right, so we've got Gillingham hosting Grimsby on 24 October in League Two, and if you look at where these two teams are at right now, the picture is pretty clear. Gillingham have won 5 of their last 10 games, scoring 20 goals at 2.0 a game, while Grimsby have managed just 2 wins in the same stretch and are scoring at 1.1 a game. That's a gap that's hard to ignore, bra.
Gillingham's last five tells the story nicely. They beat Rotherham 4-1 on the road on 10 October, then went and thrashed Brighton U21 4-3 at home in the EFL Trophy on 13 October. Yes, they lost 1-3 to Accrington on 17 October and drew 1-1 with Port Vale on 20 October, but the overall picture is a team in good rhythm, scoring 10 goals in five games. Their home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses, with 1.1 goals scored per game and 1.7 conceded. Their xG against in recent games sits at 1.17 per game, giving a baseline for the defensive pressure they face.
Grimsby, on the other hand, are struggling. Zero wins in their last five. They lost 0-2 to Northampton at home on 17 October (with a red card in the 61st minute), lost 0-1 to Port Vale on 10 October, and lost 1-2 to Shrewsbury on 3 October. The only bright spot was the 2-2 draw at Rochdale on 20 October, where they actually scored twice. But they've failed to score in three of those five games, and their points per game over the last five is 0.4. That's not a team in form.
Now, the head-to-head at this venue gives Grimsby some comfort. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 18 April 2026, and Grimsby came here and won 4-1. The older meetings at Gillingham's ground are historical record, showing Grimsby winning 1 of 2. So the history at this ground leans Grimsby's way. Grimsby's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses, with 1.3 points per game and 1.1 goals conceded per game. That's a decent away record, and it's actually a touch better than Gillingham's home numbers.
The counter-argument to Gillingham's form is straightforward: Grimsby have the edge in the head-to-head, and they've beaten Gillingham here before. Their away record is solid, and the H2H at this ground has been unfavourable for the hosts. But the current form gap is massive, and Grimsby's recent struggles — three losses in five, failing to score in three — make it hard to back them at 2.2. The market is pricing Grimsby at 45.45%, and I think that's a touch rich given what we're seeing on the pitch over the last few weeks.
Key Points:
- Gillingham have won 5 of their last 10, scoring 2.0 per game; Grimsby have won 2 of 10, scoring 1.1 per game
- Grimsby have no wins in their last five and failed to score in three of those games
- The only recent H2H meeting at Gillingham's ground (18 April 2026) ended 1-4 to Grimsby
- Gillingham's home record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games; Grimsby's away record: 6W 8D 6L in 20 games
- Gillingham's xG against in recent games is 1.17 per game, giving a baseline for the defensive pressure they face
My pick: Gillingham home win at 3.25.
