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There's something genuinely heartwarming about Groningen's last two games. A 5–1 demolition of Excelsior on 11 October and a 3–0 home win over PEC Zwolle on 18 September have left them with 8 goals scored and just 1 conceded in that little run. More importantly, they beat Ajax 3–1 at their own ground back in March, and that scoreline still sits in the memory of anyone who watched it. When you stack that recent confidence against a side that lost to Hajduk Split on 15 October and drew 1–1 with NEC Nijmegen on 10 October, the underdog narrative starts to feel real.
But the broader picture tells a different story. Groningen's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded. Ajax's away record over the same span is 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding just 1.35. The head-to-head stretches back 14 years across 28 meetings, and Ajax have won 21 of them. In the last three meetings within the past 12 months, the scores were 2–0, 3–1 and 2–0 — no draws, no surprises. At this specific venue, the only recent meeting was Groningen's 3–1 win in March, but the two meetings at Ajax's ground both ended 2–0.
The goal tally in recent games is interesting. Groningen have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games, and both teams scored in 4 of those 5. Ajax have had over 2.5 in 4 of 5 and both teams scored in all 5. The market's view on the match is clear: Ajax win at 1.96 (51.02%), draw at 4.27 (23.42%), Groningen win at 3.6 (27.78%).
Key Points:
- Groningen won their last 2 games (8 scored, 1 conceded) and beat Ajax 3–1 at home in March
- Ajax's away record over 20 games: 10W 7D 3L, 2.1 scored per game, 1.35 conceded
- The last 3 head-to-head meetings within 12 months produced no draws (2–0, 3–1, 2–0)
- Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games
- Groningen's home record over 20 games: 8W 4D 8L
Verdict: No Bet. The little puppy's recent form is lovely, but the numbers don't give me enough to feel the price is on my side.
