Rosenborg arrive at Ham-Kam's ground carrying a strong run of form. In their last ten matches, they have won eight, drawn one and lost just once, scoring 3.5 goals per game while conceding only 1.1. Their last five is even more striking: four wins and a draw, with 13 goals scored and just three conceded. The most recent meeting between these two sides, on 5 September at Rosenborg's ground, ended 4โ0 to the hosts, and that result sits squarely within the last twelve months and carries real weight.
Ham-Kam, by contrast, are in a difficult patch. Their last ten matches yield three wins, two draws and five losses, with 2.2 goals conceded per game. At home specifically, their last two fixtures have been defeats: 0โ2 to Bodo/Glimt on 17 October and 1โ5 to Molde on 13 September. Their current run is a loss, and the xG figures from their recent matches tell a story of a team creating little (1.19 per game) while being exposed at the back (1.63 conceded per game). The 20-game home record does show a solid foundation โ 11 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, 1.75 points per game โ but those 20 games span 13 months and the most recent home results have eroded that base considerably.
The counter-argument for Ham-Kam rests on the longer home record and the head-to-head. Over 20 home games, Ham-Kam have scored 1.95 per game and conceded 1.5, with 7 clean sheets. The head-to-head at this venue has no recent meetings within the last 12 months; the last time Rosenborg visited was on 28 September 2025, a 4โ0 Ham-Kam win that is now historical. The older meetings at both grounds are split, with Rosenborg winning 6 of 9 overall but Ham-Kam taking one at home. That said, those older results are 13 months to 2 years old and do not reflect the current balance of form.
The matchup tables confirm the recent gap: Rosenborg's last 10 (8W 1D 1L, 2.5 ppg, 3.5 scored, 1.1 conceded) dwarfs Ham-Kam's last 10 (3W 2D 5L, 1.1 ppg, 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded). Rosenborg have failed to score in 0 of their last 10, while Ham-Kam have gone blank in 3. The xG data reinforces this: Rosenborg are generating 1.67 per game and facing 1.51 against, while Ham-Kam generate 1.19 and face 1.63.
Key Points:
- Rosenborg have won 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 3.5 per game and conceding 1.1.
- Ham-Kam have lost both of their last two home games (0โ2 to Bodo/Glimt, 1โ5 to Molde).
- The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 4โ0 Rosenborg win on 5 September.
- Ham-Kam's 20-game home record (11W 2D 7L) is solid but spans 13 months and is being eroded by recent results.
- Rosenborg's away record over 20 games (7W 3D 10L) is weaker than their current form suggests, with older games diluting the picture.
The form gap is significant, but the 20-game home record for Ham-Kam and the absence of a recent meeting at this specific venue mean I cannot assign Rosenborg a win probability high enough to feel certain. The available prices do not offer a stake I can back with the conviction this fixture demands. No bet.
