Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction

Right, so it's Hannover 96 versus FC St. Pauli on 17 October in the 2. Bundesliga, and if you want to know where the weight of evidence sits, the home and away numbers do the talking for you.

Hannover's home record over their last 20 games at home is 11 wins, 7 draws and just 2 losses. They score 1.8 goals per game at home and concede 0.85, with 9 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Now look at St. Pauli's away record over 20 games: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. They score 1.35 per game away and concede 1.85, with just 2 clean sheets. That's a gulf, mate. Hannover at home are scoring 1.8 per game compared to St. Pauli's 1.35 on the road, and the defensive numbers are even starker.

St. Pauli's recent form, though, is worth a nod. They've gone 2 wins and 3 draws in their last five, no defeats, and they've kept clean sheets in 2 of those 5. The 2-0 over Karlsruhe on 11 October was tidy. But their away record over 20 games is the real story, and 10 losses in 20 is not a pretty picture.

Hannover's last game was a 0-3 loss at Magdeburg on 10 October, which stings, but before that they'd won 2-1 at home to Bochum and 2-0 to Verl. Their home form in the last three home games is 2 wins and 1 draw. The head-to-head here is dated — no meetings within the last 12 months — so we're leaning on current form and venue records rather than history.

The counter-argument is St. Pauli's unbeaten run and the fact that Hannover just got thumped 0-3. But that was on the road. At home, Hannover are a different proposition, and St. Pauli's away numbers simply don't back them up.

Key Points:

• Hannover 96: 11W 7D 2L in 20 home games; 1.8 scored per game, 0.85 conceded

• FC St. Pauli: 4W 6D 10L in 20 away games; 1.35 scored per game, 1.85 conceded

• St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 (2W 3D 0L) but their away record is poor

• Head-to-head is historical only — no meetings within 12 months

• Hannover's last three home games: 2W 1D (2-0 Verl, 2-1 Bochum, 2-2 Karlsruhe)

The market prices Hannover's win at 2.12, which implies about 47% chance. My read, based on those home and away numbers, is that Hannover are a bit better than that — I'd put them around 53%. There's value in the home win here. I'm going with the Hannover 96 home win.