Preview
FC St. Pauli arrive at Hannover 96's ground on 17 October carrying the kind of momentum that makes the little dog look like the big one. Unbeaten in their last five matches — two wins and three draws — the Hamburg side have scored in every single game, kept two clean sheets, and racked up 1.8 points per game over that stretch. Their most recent outing was a 2–0 home win over Karlsruher SC on 11 October, and before that they drew 1–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach in a friendly on 3 October. No losses, no blanks. Just steady, quiet confidence.
Hannover 96, by contrast, are coming off a 0–3 defeat at 1. FC Magdeburg on 10 October — their last game before this fixture. Their last five matches tell a mixed story: two wins (2–0 over Verl in a friendly and 2–1 over VfL Bochum), one draw (2–2 with Karlsruher SC), and two losses (0–3 at Magdeburg and 1–2 at Nürnberg). They've conceded 8 goals in those five games and kept just one clean sheet. The little puppy has been barking a lot lately, and not all of it is good news.
The head-to-head here is entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — so we lean on current form. At Hannover's ground, the two sides met twice in older fixtures: a 1–2 loss for Hannover in April 2024 and a 2–2 draw in July 2022. That's not a trend; it's just history, and it doesn't tell us much about what happens on 17 October.
The counter-argument is real and worth respecting. Hannover 96's home record over 20 games is formidable: 11 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses, 2.0 points per game, 1.8 goals scored per game and just 0.85 conceded. They've kept 9 clean sheets in those 20 home games. That's a solid base to build on, and it's why the market prices them as the favourite at 2.12.
But the numbers from the last five weeks tell a different story. St. Pauli's 1.8 points per game over their last five outpaces Hannover's 1.4, and St. Pauli have failed to score in zero of those five games while Hannover have gone blank in one. St. Pauli's away record over 20 games (4W 6D 10L, 0.9 ppg) is their weakest area, but their recent form suggests they've found a gear that doesn't show up in that longer stretch. The little dog has been running circles around the big one lately, and I think that's worth a look.
Key Points:
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in 5 (2W 3D 0L), scoring in every game and keeping 2 clean sheets
- Hannover 96 lost 0–3 to Magdeburg on 10 October, just 7 days before kickoff
- Hannover's home record (11W 7D 2L in 20 games) is strong, but recent form is mixed
- Head-to-head is entirely historical; no meetings in the last 12 months
- St. Pauli's 1.8 ppg over 5 games edges Hannover's 1.4
The market has Hannover 96 as the favourite at 2.12, but the little dog has been running circles around the big one lately. I'm backing FC St. Pauli to take the points away — away win at 3.12.
