Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction

Right, so we've got Inter hosting Fiorentina on 25 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.

Inter have been absolute machines at home this year. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 15, drawn 2 and lost just 3, scoring 2.6 a game and conceding 1.3. That's a record that makes your eyes water. And their last five matches? Four wins and one loss, with a 3-0 hammering of Parma and a 2-0 over Lumezzane at home. They've won their last two, scoring 4 and conceding just 1. The xG numbers back it up too — Inter are averaging 2.81 expected goals per game in their recent matches, which is a scary figure for any defence to face.

Now look at Fiorentina on the road. Their last 20 away games read 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding 1.65. And their last two? Both losses. They went down 1-3 to Como at home and 1-2 to Genoa away, conceding 5 in those two. Their record over the last 10 games is 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses. That's a team that's struggling to find its feet on the road.

The head-to-head at Inter's ground in the last 12 months? Inter won 3-0 back in October 2025. That's the most recent meeting at this venue, and it doesn't exactly suggest a tight affair. The older meetings at this ground go back further, but the recent one is the one that matters, and it's a clean sheet for Inter.

Now, I'll give Fiorentina credit where it's due. They did score in all five of their last five games, and their away record isn't a disaster — 9 wins in 20 is respectable enough. And Inter did lose 3-4 to Club Brugge at home in the Champions League, so they're not invincible. But that Brugge game was a different competition, and the overall picture here is one team in red-hot form at home against a side that's been leaking goals on the road.

The matchup table makes it even clearer: Inter's 2.35 points per game at home sits well above Fiorentina's 1.5 away, and Inter's 2.6 goals scored per game at home dwarfs Fiorentina's 1.5 on the road. Inter have also kept 7 clean sheets in 20 home games, while Fiorentina have managed just 4 in 20 away.

Key Points:

• Inter have won 15 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.6 per game and conceding 1.3

• Fiorentina have lost their last two, conceding 5 goals in the process

• The most recent meeting at Inter's ground ended 3-0 to Inter

• Inter's xG for is 2.81 per game in recent matches; Fiorentina's xG for is 1.59

• Fiorentina's away record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games

The market prices Inter at 1.41, which implies about a 71% chance. Looking at the form, the home record, the away struggles and the head-to-head, I'd put Inter's chances a touch higher than that. This is a straightforward one.

My pick: Inter home win.