Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction

Inter arrive at this Serie A fixture in commanding form, having won their last two matches and collected 4 wins from 5 games across all competitions. Their home record over the last 20 games is remarkable: 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 2.6 goals per game while conceding just 1.3. Notably, Inter have never failed to score in those 20 home matches, and they have kept 7 clean sheets in that span.

Fiorentina, by contrast, are in a difficult patch. They have lost their last two games — 1–3 to Como at home on 18 October and 1–2 to Genoa away on 10 October — and sit at 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last five. Their away record over 20 games tells a less encouraging story: 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, with 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.65 conceded. They have failed to score in 5 of those 20 away outings.

The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months is a single meeting: Inter won 3–0 on 29 October 2025. The other recent meeting, at Fiorentina's ground on 22 March 2026, ended 1–1. Older meetings at Inter's ground are historical record only, but the recent 3–0 victory gives a clear picture of how this fixture has played out at this ground.

The xG numbers reinforce the gap. Inter's attacking output across 8 recent games with xG data averages 2.81 per game, while Fiorentina's attacking xG across 6 games is 1.59 per game. Inter's defensive xG against sits at 1.54 per game, but Fiorentina's actual goals conceded (15 in 6 games) far exceed their 1.54 xG against, suggesting their backline is underperforming relative to the chances they face.

The counter-argument is that Inter did lose 3–4 to Club Brugge at home in the Champions League on 13 October, and that the other recent meeting at Fiorentina's ground ended 1–1, showing they can compete. However, the Club Brugge game was in a different competition, and Fiorentina's two recent losses — conceding 5 goals across those two games — paint a picture of a team struggling to hold a shape.

Key Points:

• Inter: 15W 2D 3L in 20 home games; never failed to score at home

• Fiorentina: 9W 3D 8L in 20 away games; lost last 2, conceded 5 in those games

• H2H at this venue (recent): Inter won 3–0 on 29 October 2025

• Inter's xG for: 2.81 per game vs Fiorentina's xG for: 1.59 per game

• Inter won last 2 (scored 4, conceded 1); Fiorentina lost last 2 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Inter home win.