Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Prediction

Jong Ajax and De Graafschap meet at Jong Ajax's ground on 19 October in the Eerste Divisie, and the recent form gap between the two sides is hard to ignore.

De Graafschap arrive in strong shape. Over their last five matches they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 6. They have not failed to score in any of those five games, and four of the five produced more than two goals. Their away record over 20 games tells a similar story: 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, with 1.65 goals scored per game. The most recent meeting between these two sides, back in February at De Graafschap's ground, ended 4–0 to the visitors' opponents — a result that underlined how comfortably De Graafschap can handle this fixture when in command.

Jong Ajax, by contrast, are struggling. Their last five matches produced 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with just 2 goals scored and 11 conceded. Three of those five games saw them fail to score at all, and their home record over 20 games shows 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses — a 25% win rate that sits well below De Graafschap's 35% away win rate. The 0–3 defeat to VVV Venlo ten days ago, in which a red card in the 76th minute left them a man down, was the latest in a run of poor results that has left them conceding at a rate of 2.2 per game across that stretch.

The matchup tables reinforce the picture. De Graafschap's away figures show 1.65 goals scored per game and 15 of 20 games producing both-teams-to-score outcomes, while Jong Ajax's home numbers show 1.4 scored per game and 8 of 20 games where they failed to score. De Graafschap's away record also produced over 2.5 goals in 15 of 20 games, compared to 12 of 20 for Jong Ajax at home.

The counter-argument is that Jong Ajax's home record does include 5 wins in those 20 games, and the older head-to-head meetings at this venue — a 2–0 win in December 2024 and a 2–2 draw in October 2025 — show they are capable of holding their own here. De Graafschap's away record also includes 7 losses in 20 games, so they are not immune to an upset. However, those older meetings are historical and do not reflect the current form gap, and the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 4–0 De Graafschap victory.

Key Points:

• De Graafschap have won 3 of their last 5 and scored in all five, while Jong Ajax have won just 1 of 5 and failed to score in three.

• De Graafschap's away record (7W 6D 7L, 1.35 ppg) outperforms Jong Ajax's home record (5W 5D 10L, 1 ppg).

• The only recent head-to-head meeting within 12 months was a 4–0 De Graafschap win.

• Jong Ajax have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 per game.

• De Graafschap's away record produced over 2.5 goals in 15 of 20 games.

With the market pricing De Graafschap's win at 2.25 and implying a 44.44% chance, the football evidence suggests the visitors are better than the price indicates. The form gap, the scoring record, and the recent head-to-head all point the same way. My pick is the away win.